The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:00)
When I wasn't able to use the R word, I would use Deficiente for two people, Jason and Friedberg's dog, Marshall Friedberg.

**David Friedberg** (0:10)
I can't stand Marshall Friedberg.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:12)
That little bastardino jumps on the table, eats the nuts.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:16)
The worst.

**David Friedberg** (0:17)
The worst.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:18)
I ate Marshall Friedberg. I ate him. I can't stand this bastardino.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:23)
Look at how he sits.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:25)
He sits like a moron. He sits like a Deficente. Look at this dweeb and this Deficente. Now, Nick, show them my dogs. Beautiful.

**Gavin Baker** (0:35)
Beautiful dogs.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:36)
Valentina Zanini. She's the breeder of breeders. Look at these two beautifully elegant. Look at all these dogs. Look how well-behaved they are. You don't see them jumping on the table to eat the main course, Friedberg?

**Jason Calacanis** (0:47)
No.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:48)
Marshall almost ruined our Christmas dinner. This is why I'm holding a real grudge against Marshall Friedberg.

**David Friedberg** (0:52)
He ate Chamath's nuts.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:54)
No, and Allison, cock at Allison off-guard, she's like, Marshall Friedberg, get off the table.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:58)
I just love that he's got a full name. Marshall Eugene Friedberg. All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one state sponsor, I'm sorry, All-In podcast in the world, the number one podcast. Oh, sorry, Trade Bullets. Here we go. Back on the program. Our guy, Gavin Baker is here. You know him from A Treaties Management, does private and public, four billion under management and lots to talk about with you.

**David Friedberg** (1:40)
GB1. Good to have you here.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:42)
GB1 is here. Solo, Dolo, CoreWeave IPO happening soon. By the time you get this and Nvidia, you were there at Nvidia. You are the one analyst, Gavin, that Jensen pulled up. You're loved by Jensen. What's it like to be loved by Jensen?

**David Friedberg** (2:00)
Tell us everything.

**Gavin Baker** (2:02)
Well, so first thing he did, Alfred was from Scoya.
Then they had a nice sell-side guy whose name is escaping me at the moment. But it is technically true, I was the only public equity investor on the buy side. That Jensen asked. I've known Jensen for 25 years. He's the same guy he ever was, just maybe slightly calmer.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (2:25)
Gavin, can I ask you all this stuff where they talk about the balance sheet questions that some folks have about Nvidia, some of the accounts receivable issues and stuff. Is there any legitimacy to those issues, the round tripping? What's the real story of someone that peers into that P&L and understands it?

**Gavin Baker** (2:48)
Yeah. So I guess maybe take them in reverse order. I really don't think, like, if Nvidia had not put any money into CoreWeave, not put any money into kind of other of these Neo clouds, I don't think it would have impacted their revenues at all.
At all. They would have sold more to Meta and more to Tesla, more to Amazon, more to Microsoft. So the reason they did it is even three years ago, it was a very stable three-player oligopoly from the cloud competing players in Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. And if you're Nvidia, that's not great to have just three big customers. Those big clouds, particularly in 2023, when there was such a rush to get GPUs, they each kind of want to do their own kind of custom version of an Nvidia server. And Nvidia, by giving kind of like a standard reference design, which someone like CoreWeave bought to CoreWeave, you got GPUs in the market a lot faster. And when you use Nvidia's reference design, it's generally smoother and easier to stand them up. And so, the big three kind of cloud computing, you know, hyperscalers, their incremental share of revenue went down. And that was nothing but good for Nvidia, because they now have kind of a more fragmented base of buyers who have less power over them.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (4:18)
But what does it mean, Gavin, when the accounts receivable jumps from a billion five or so to like five and a half billion year over year? Is that concerning or that's just business?

**Gavin Baker** (4:28)
So look, it's never good. But if you think Nvidia has gone through the biggest product transition in history, in terms of Hopper, you know, this is a business doing tens of billions of dollars at scale. There's never been a product transition like this in the history of semiconductors going from Hopper to Blackwell. You know, kind of the 2022 generation GPU to this one. The only precedent for this on planet Earth is the iPhone. And there's something called the Osborne Effect, which is, you know, when Apple comes out with a new iPhone for the three months before, nobody buys the new iPhone.