The 35% Recession Warning Markets Are Ignoring — ft. Ed Yardeni artwork

The 35% Recession Warning Markets Are Ignoring — ft. Ed Yardeni

Prof G Markets

March 20, 2026

Ed Elson and Scott Galloway are joined by Ed Yardeni to discuss why he recently raised the odds of a recession this year. He also weighs in on the risks in private credit, what he thinks could fundamentally change America, and what’s really going on in the bond market right now.
Speakers: Scott Galloway, Ed Elson, Ed Yardeni
**Scott Galloway** (0:00)
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**SPEAKER_2** (0:43)
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**Ed Elson** (0:50)
Bro, Skycoin, way better than points.

**Ed Yardeni** (0:53)
Never fly during a Scorpio full moon.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:56)
Just tell the manager you'll sue.

**SPEAKER_5** (0:58)
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**SPEAKER_2** (1:00)
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**Scott Galloway** (1:25)
Today's number, $48 million. CalSTRI's trading volume on Oscars categories hit 48.4 million this year, up 39 percent from last year and 95 percent from 2024 Ed, I don't know if you saw the award for participation trophy.

**Ed Elson** (1:46)
You got to, you have to have a punchline.

**Scott Galloway** (1:49)
Well, Ed, you had to be there. All right, never mind. I got something better.

**Ed Elson** (1:53)
Maybe that works, but what happened to the timing?

**Scott Galloway** (1:56)
That's the problem when I try to go dadger. All right, fuck this shit. Did you hear about the new category for Suicide Bomber? No. Unfortunately, he couldn't be with us tonight. Listen to me. Markets are bigger than us. What you have here is a structural change in the world distribution.

**SPEAKER_5** (2:12)
Cash is trash.

**SPEAKER_6** (2:14)
Stocks look pretty attractive.

**Scott Galloway** (2:15)
Something's going to break.

**SPEAKER_7** (2:16)
Forget about it.

**Scott Galloway** (2:18)
Ed, I don't know if you heard. Anyways, any questions you want to ask me about anything I did this weekend? Anything you'd like to know about Ed? Anything on your mind? Anything at the tip of the tip of your prefrontal, if you're still evolving prefrontal cortex?

**Ed Elson** (2:34)
Yes. Now that you mention it, how was the Vanity Fair Oscars after party in LA, Scott?

**Scott Galloway** (2:42)
Ed, Ed, Ed, Ed, I don't like to talk about my personal life. Just this once, we'll turn this back to me. Oh my God. Could I be more fucking fabulous? I mean, seriously, I was in Brunello Cuccinelli, I sat next to the, I think her name is Alison Brie. She's a woman, she was Trudy on Mad Men.

**Ed Elson** (3:08)
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.

**Scott Galloway** (3:09)
And she was in Glow and she's in this new movie. She couldn't have been more lovely, more beautiful. And then I sat next to the woman on my left was Jessica Williams, the woman in the, she's in the series Shrink, also super smart, intelligent, interesting. And two seats away from me was Sam Altman. We're gonna just gloss right over that. And then keep moving around. I mean, I, at one point- Yeah, I'm totally serious.

**Ed Elson** (3:34)
Oh my gosh.

**Scott Galloway** (3:37)
Anyways, and then at one point, I was at the bar in between John Hamm and Jacob Elote. And I thought, no chance, I'm getting late tonight. No one's coming up to me. If Emily Radikowski comes up right now, who was also at the party, chances are she's not gonna talk to me.

**Ed Elson** (3:56)
So take us through, I mean, one, why were you there? Two, how was it? I mean, give us just sort of like the play-by-play on this experience.

**Scott Galloway** (4:06)
Well, the answer to your first question, why I was there, I have no fucking idea. I'm not exaggerating. I was Googling actors named Galloway because I thought it must have been a mistake. I think what happened was, in all seriousness, I think someone said, oh, podcasting's a new thing. And they said, who's a podcasting? Some 19-year-old intern probably threw out my name.

**Ed Elson** (4:26)
Praise be to that 19-year-old intern, really changed things, yep.

**Scott Galloway** (4:30)
A hundred percent. But I went, it starts really early, because I guess of time zones. So I went to the dinner, you show up ridiculously early. It's like we're 110 years old going for the Grand Slam dinner at Denny's. You get there at 3.30, you walk in, and it's about 120, 150 people at the dinner. I hung out with Larry David. I'm totally name dropping right now. It was like angry meat, depressed, depressed meat, angry.

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