The 2026 Hype Cycle for Agentic AI: What Leaders Need to Know

**Karen Stokes Lockhart** (0:02)
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Welcome to Gartner ThinkCast. I'm Karen Stokes Lockhart. Today, we're unpacking one of the most talked about topics in enterprise technology right now, agentic AI.
If it feels like you've been hearing that term everywhere lately, you're not alone. The hype is real, but so is the potential. To help separate signal from noise, Gartner has recently introduced a new hype cycle specifically for agentic AI. Joining us today to help break it down is our own subject matter expert, Gartner distinguished VP analyst, Rajesh Kandaswamy. Rajesh, welcome in.

**Rajesh Kandaswamy** (1:10)
Thanks, Karen. It's good to be here.

**Karen Stokes Lockhart** (1:13)
Wonderful. Well, let's jump right in and start with the foundation.
For any listeners who may be a little less familiar, can you tell us what exactly is a Gartner hype cycle and what is it designed to help leaders understand?

**Rajesh Kandaswamy** (1:26)
Sure. Gartner hype cycle is one of the most popular Gartner deliverables. What it is, it really unpacks a particular technology, especially the ones that we hear a lot about and where hype is increasing.
The hype cycle helps cut through that and then identify what are the different aspects of the technology and what they can deliver, and really where the hype is compared to its potential.

**Karen Stokes Lockhart** (1:56)
And so when you look at that hype cycle, how do you and your team actually determine where a technology sits on the hype cycle? And maybe a little bit about what signals, data or patterns you're looking for.

**Rajesh Kandaswamy** (2:09)
Yeah, sure. So at Gartner, we have a varied set of analysts who we are constantly talking to clients across all industries and technology companies. So what we do is we pay attention to the specific technologies that are increasing in attention.
And then a group of us spend time to look through to see in the technology, what are the different components? What are the different aspects of it? What are companies doing with it?
Are there vendors that are offering interesting new innovations? We look at all of that together. We discuss what is real versus what is hype, and then make a collective decision on what all needs to be in the hype cycle, how big each of those transformations could be, and where is the hype against how long it's going to take for it to really realize its potential. So it's an elaborate process. You're looking at things in the market, talking to our clients, and many of us discussing it internally.

**Karen Stokes Lockhart** (3:11)
So I know many people see the hype cycle as a prediction tool, but as you're talking, it sounds like it's really more about behavior and expectations. How should leaders interpret it? And maybe just as importantly, how should they not interpret it?

**Rajesh Kandaswamy** (3:27)
Yeah.
The way to use the hype cycle is, for instance, in this case, agentic AI, you hear all the hype in the market. And now what is important for leaders to do is really understand what are the different innovations that drive agentic AI. But that is the first thing for leaders to understand and use the hype cycle for. And second, getting an understanding of the different things that you want to use, where is the hype and where is the potential?
And more importantly, what is going to be ready within the technology to use in the short term? And which ones might take some time to realize? And using that rich set of information to plan your right investments and any architecture decisions and any use cases that you want to implement all of them. So what we ask is, while there is a lot of hyperbola technology, go a level deeper. Use the hype cycle to find what are the specific components and where they are, and then make a more judicious decision on your investments.

**Karen Stokes Lockhart** (4:34)
Gartner already covers AI broadly. So what makes agentic AI distinct enough to warrant its own dedicated hype cycle this year?

**Rajesh Kandaswamy** (4:42)
Yeah. Karen, there is not a day that goes by when you don't hear about AI agents and agentic AI in the media. Within AI, this is the most hyped of technologies.
And what we see is, while the hype is there, the interest in CIOs wanting to invest is also very high. We did a survey last year with CIOs asking about different emerging technologies and what they plan to invest in. Agentic AI is the number one place they wanted to invest in this year.