Surviving The Fourth Turning | Neil Howe

Neil Howe (0:00)

We laid out in the Fourth Turning three main threats, right, that Fourth Turning's often bring, and certainly this one, you can just see it's right on the table, right? One is financial crash, the other is political collapse, and the other is great power conflict.

Adam Taggart (0:30)

Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart, and I am very excited to bring you this special interview.

We are talking with the great demographer, Neil Howe, author of the books, The Fourth Turning. The Fourth Turning is here, and now he's just finished a new manuscript on a new book. Neil, thank you so much for joining us.

Neil Howe (0:51)

Adam, it's great to be here.

Adam Taggart (0:53)

Thank you. Neil, for a guy who covers a topic that is potentially so full of worry as The Fourth Turning is, you're such a cheerful, laid-back kind of guy. I love interviewing you. It's always so informational, but you always make me feel so much better about what the future may bring.

Look, real quick, just to get out of the way, you have just put the finishing touches, I think, to the manuscript on a new book. It's not quite available for sale yet. But real quickly, just to put it on folks' radar, what's the book about and when do you think it'll be available for purchase?

Neil Howe (1:30)

Well, the tentative title for the book is How to Prepare for the End of the World as We Know It. A little takeoff on REM, as you recall, from the 1990s, right?

Adam Taggart (1:42)

Great song.

Neil Howe (1:45)

It's really a book, not really so much. It's definitely about the Fourth Turning, but it says almost nothing about the Fourth Turning in the book. It's not about historical theory. It's much more practical. It's basically saying, we laid out in the Fourth Turning three main threats. Right? That Fourth Turnings often bring, and certainly this one, you can just see it's right on the table. Right? One is financial crash, the other is political collapse, and the other is great power conflict.

That's basically what this book highlights. Right?

The first part talks about the growing probability of these happening. The second part talks about what actual threats to your life, these things actually pose, and how the probabilities overlap with each other. If one happens, how is the other one likely to happen? It really goes through real world scenarios. Then the third part is completely practical. What do you do? What do you do with your family? How would you relocate? What do you do with your finances? What do you do with your wealth? What do you do, for instance, to help protect yourself in a financial crash?

As you know, I'm portfolio manager now. I'm an ETF. We can talk about that if you want.

Adam Taggart (3:08)

We will.

Neil Howe (3:09)

That's with the Hedge Eye Asset Management. And that's been wonderful.

I've been around markets for a long time.

That's one aspect of it. But even the financial, it's not just what's your portfolio, but what do you do if markets cease? What do you do if markets just shut down?

And that's another level of sort of convexity. You need to be prepared for that as well. You need to be prepared for everything. Now, everything's not going to happen.

And for all you know, nothing's going to happen. I make that point at the beginning of the book. This is kind of Pascal's Wager. You know what I mean? You are prepared. And even if nothing happens, you will be a better person. You will be more helpful. You'll be more helpful to yourself, to your friends, just for all kinds of things that happen. But if we do go in this direction, as I think there's a growing likelihood we will, and I go through probabilities in the book, this may save you. It may save you, your family, and really help your community. And I also talk to young people. I say, if you're wondering what you want to specialize in, the skills you want to learn, right? That would render you utterly invaluable in this kind of environment. What skills should you learn? So I go through skills prep as part of it as well. What skills would you learn? What would you really know? To be a person who in an emergency would have no trouble ever finding a place to live or being fed or being taken care of. You know what I mean? Absolutely. So this is what I lay out because this is the climax of The Fourth Turning.