Stock Picking in Difficult Times with George Noble | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 76

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Steve Eisman (1:05)

Hey, it's Steve Eisman. Welcome to another episode of The Real Eisman Playbook. We get a lot of different types of guests on this show. We get sell side analysts, we get buy side analysts, we get authors, we get economists, we're getting substackers. But it's nice to sometimes get someone who has a background that's similar to mine, who has been an asset manager and is now a podcaster, and is expressing opinions like I've been expressing opinions. That person is George Noble, who was once a portfolio manager at Fidelity, and now is a podcaster, newsletter writer. We're going to have a very broad ranging conversation about a whole range of topics. When we're done, I'll be back with some thoughts.

Hi, this is Steve Eisman. Welcome to another episode of The Real Eisman Playbook. Our guest today, George Noble, who has been here before, who has been a portfolio manager. He's now a podcaster and a newsletter writer, kind of like me.

So, George, welcome back.

George Noble (2:09)

Good to be, always a pleasure to be here with you, Steve.

Steve Eisman (2:11)

So, not that there's much going on.

George Noble (2:13)

No.

Steve Eisman (2:15)

But let's start, we've got so many things to cover. Let's just start with the latest news.

You give me your thoughts. I'll give you my thoughts about the whole Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, trying to, for lack of a better term, repress interest rates. What are your thoughts about this?

George Noble (2:32)

Before I answer that, it's just one of the lines I always use. It's the quote from Vladimir Lenin, where sometimes years go by and nothing happens, and sometimes weeks go by and years happen. We're in one of those right now.

We're also in one of those periods where you and I are both stock pickers, but there are times when you really have to pay attention to macro, and there are times when the macro is rather quiescent. Right now, we've got so much going on with the oil price, with AI, with the concerns over the deficit. There's just a lot of moving parts right now.

Steve Eisman (3:06)

So, over and beyond just, I'm going to buy stock X.

George Noble (3:10)

And you know this, Steve.

Sometimes, it always helps to have the force with you, the macro, either neutral in your favor. Rumor has it you once did financials.

SPEAKER_1 (3:19)

Yes, I write. Okay.

George Noble (3:20)

So, much better that your environment, we don't have to think about interest rates, rather flatter going down. But when you have a gale force hurricane in your face, say you want to own a home builders or a mortgage guy, and rates are going up and to the right.

SPEAKER_1 (3:33)

It's hopeless.

George Noble (3:34)

There are times when you have to really pay attention to the macro. Michael Cantor, who I believe you know, has always said most groups, most stocks, their behavior can be described as a combination of various factor influences, or rates going up or down, as the dollar going up or down, as the economy is slowing or increasing. I tend to use that framework a lot when looking at stocks. Anyway, getting to Scott Bessent.

Look, he's in a very tough position.

Steve Eisman (4:02)

Let's have a little mercy and a little sympathy.

George Noble (4:05)

We could be very quick. A little. I know what words you're looking for. No, no, no. The word I was about to use was Rachmanis. Yes, of course. Maybe you want to explain to the viewers what that means.