Skilled Trades Labor Shortage 2026: A $1.7 Million Job Crisis and an Investment Angle

SPEAKER_1 (0:01)

This is InvestTalk from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time. Here's your host, Luke Guerrero.

Luke Guerrero (0:16)

Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to the Tuesday, October 6th, 2026 edition of InvestTalk. I'm your host Luke Guerrero, and I'll be with you over the next 45, 50 minutes or so, as we dissect what happened in the market today, bring you stories that matter, and answer your finance and investment questions.

Before we get started, I do want to give you a quick heads up because the date is getting ever closer. It is just under three weeks away. Be sure to mark your calendar for October 24th. It is a Saturday, and you are invited to join the KPP team, as well as guest experts we're bringing for our first in-person InvestTalk Retirement Summit. It is a special event. It is free of charge, but seating is limited. So if you are interested in learning more about financial planning, about estate planning, wills, real estate, taxes, I encourage you to head over to investtalk.com and submit your registration today. All right, in just a bit, we'll talk about today's market performance and run down our show topics. But let's tackle a caller question first.

SPEAKER_3 (1:32)

Hi, a great show. I just wanted to get your analysis of BCE and if it was a good investment. Okay, thank you.

Luke Guerrero (1:42)

BCE is a telecom company out of Canada. It is Bell Canada. They have wireless service. They got fiber internet and they are a bit of a rough shape. We've seen a lot of telecom companies over the past couple of years get beaten down. Telecom companies in general exist within an industry that means they operate with a really high leverage, really high debt. In fact, they got 34 billion in debt on a $26.2 billion market cap. Both of those being in Canadian dollars, not in US dollars. But still, a lot of debt, a lot of leverage and less than stellar returns. They have been negative going back to 2022 It has underperformed its industry in three out of those five years. Revenue growth is at 1.3% on an annualized basis. Return on equity has shrunk from where it was four or five years ago. Margins are pretty steady, but all in all, do you want to own a company that is highly leveraged in an environment where rates are rising? Now, one thing that is going forward or a couple of things that are going forward, their fiber business seems to be working. That about 14% growth there, their internet revenue grew 14% year over year, and they're trading really at their low going back to 2022

So the downside risk may seem minimal to you, but I think you have opportunity cost here.

And even if we weren't in a rising environment, which we are, which means dead intensive businesses don't do poorly, telecoms tend to be a very difficult space in which to see solid realized returns. Now, I know why you're looking at this because the dividend yield is 6.2%, but that can't overcome the overall capital destruction. Let me look at the total return here real quick. Because when you have a situation like this, you can't just look at price return because the yield has been really high.

So there you go. Going back to one year, the total return is still negative 8%.

Going back five years, even taking into consideration, dividends, you're looking at negative 9% on an annualized basis. The cumulative return is negative 37 versus the Canadian Stock Index is positive 100 So, don't look at the dividend, look through the dividend, BCE gonna have to pass. We had a great show for you yesterday. Justin looked at emerging markets and specifically talked about how oil, the dollar and Iran have put those markets under pressure. He also answered a listener question on Ticker ANF, which is Abercrombie and Fitch. If you wanna learn more about Abercrombie and Fitch or emerging markets, I encourage you to check out yesterday's episode of InvestTalk. And remember, the best way to never miss an episode of InvestTalk is to subscribe where you get your podcasts. On to today, where we have plenty of great things to bring you, including our main focus point about skilled labor. Now, there's been a bit of a shortage in 2026, a $1.7 million job crisis and an investment angle. There was a new report which showed 1.7 million skilled trade jobs will open every year through 2035 And experts have no idea who are gonna fill them. It isn't just a workforce story, it is a macroeconomic pressure point that really could affect construction jobs, infrastructure spending, as well as inflation for years to come. We'll also be talking about the 2027 cost of living adjustment, thousands of dollars that were unclaimed at the treasury, and should we have time at the end of the show a little bit about your tax bill.