SHARP NFL Week 5 Bets: Bears-Packers, Niners-Seahawks and more

Chad Millman (0:00)

Welcome to Sharp or Square. We are presented by Polymarket, and we are a part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the Squares sharper, and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Simon Hunter (0:25)

Chad, how we doing?

Chad Millman (0:26)

Brother, you're on the road. You made a big road trip with your dad. You're coming to us from a remote location.

I like when you get out of the house during the season.

Simon Hunter (0:36)

I don't. I'm a creature of habit, but we need to switch it up anyway. We need to win. So yeah, on the road, seeing my cousin play some soccer. He's a senior. So normally I would not be doing anything during the season, but I had two major family events. We used to have a wedding and I had this. So yeah, headed down North Carolina, watching some high school soccer and see my man get, you know, I think he's like their MVP. So he's getting some award, really proud of him. And yeah, I was trying to find ways to talk my way out of the chat, but it's like, man, I gotta, gotta go down. You gotta spend time with the family.

Chad Millman (1:09)

You just do it. In the end, you're never going to regret it. You're going to be glad you made the effort. You're going to have the memory. It's going to be awesome. You know what else is going to be awesome? This is our NFL Week 5 Thursday show. You and I, we're going to talk about some Sharp Calls and Brass Balls.

Our underdog and favorite, Robbins, your biggest bets, our Sharp versus Square, our Discord Grouper of the Week. We're going to narrow down to our final five official picks of the free $25,000 NFL Pick'em Contest, which is still available for sign up, sharpersquare.thevolume.com.

Top 10 finishers get paid, 10,000 first place, Simon. All right, every week, we discuss our picks on Tuesday. By Thursday, you've gotten an earful from your professional betting colleagues, what they hate, what they don't, what they like that I said, which is always making me happy. It's time for Sharp Calls. Who's there?

Simon Hunter (2:20)

I'm talking.

Yeah, crazy week with the line movement, Chad. A lot of guys taking positions and moving pretty big numbers. Let's start with the games we loved that the numbers have moved. Texans, they were six and a half. We talked about it on Tuesday, just so much money, so many guys I've talked to have just had the same view I have. It's like, yes, this Texas team isn't what we thought they were, but I knew this was going to be a D'Amico, Rines, all in, burn the ships type of game. And you saw even this week, he said, I'm taking over the play calling. So my view is exactly what it was going to be was this is a D'Amico, this team loves the type of game. So tons of calls on that one where all the guys agree, even at seven, minus seven and a half of guys are like, I'd still play it. Like they had the same view of me, but like the Texans are a good team. They should win 20 to 10, 30 to 10 They should blow out this Tennessee team. So that was a big one of conversation. So Miami game, a game, I feel like we were in on it. We know we're supposed to take it. It was seven and a half, it was seven. Now it's six and a half. And I still know professional groups taking up position on it. And if you want to wait now, you maybe can get back to seven, but that was definitely a big discussion this week.

Other games we talked about that the line has really moved heavily. Atlanta, I mean, talked about it plus three and a half, talked about it plus two and a half, talked about when they were minus two and a half favorites. Now they're up to minus three and a half. So it's just one of those where I was banging it, guys were hitting it really hard. Like I know some groups have taken really large positions on it. And it's all a hedge against Lamar. Lamar plays, you can buy your position. That's the whole point in our view of it. And if he does play with an ankle injury, you're getting great value. So that's another line that just, you get these rare opportunities and you see the spot where it's like, okay, this is a guy where are they going to force him back? If he has an ankle injury, Lamar Jackson. And we'll find out today, right after our show, we should know if he's going to practice or not. If he doesn't practice today, highly unlikely Lamar plays in that game. So another game, if you want to take a position on minus three and a half, I don't hate it. It's just we're trying to give you out the best number here. That's what every pro that I talked to was like. Yeah, I'm right there with you guys. I'm betting that number right now. So that's one that really jumped out. Games we might be wrong on.