Sept 28,2022 reiterate hedges. Feeble bounces

SPEAKER_1 (0:01)

Hi, everyone, it is September 28th, 2022, and you are watching Awesome 10x Wednesday Class. This is a Wednesday, and everyone knows that it is supposed to be a fundamental industry deep dive. Instead, we're going to take you to a memory lane. We're going to show to you our views in January and whether it has changed now in September 28th with the SPY breaking below 3.6. So let's go through our January, February.

Let's do a quick snap back, a memory lane. And I'm going to cut today's class very short. It's going to be about 30 minutes before 6 p.m. I'll have to go.

But here's the thing. Let's just go through what we have been discussing January and February. Around February, we talked about crazy volatility, and we made a topic to learn about bearish spreads and risk reversals. It's always darkest before the dawn, and we made a lot of money January, February, March, mostly by always shorting or remaining on the short side, whether it be the Apple, the Tesla, the Facebook, the Nvidia, Coinbase, etc.

And during that time, you'll notice that it used to be that gold was a safe haven. Nowadays, we are actually doing what? JDST, which is essentially shorting gold. You'll notice that gold today has broken down. You can see that gold is falling down very, very fast. From previously being a safe haven, it has been unlocked that gold is not a safe haven and is actually a massive short. This is the reason why our JDST, which is a breakaway gap, if you were listening to the class, when did we give topic? This was a Monday class. So on Monday, we said that there was a significant gap up. So Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, today, so Wednesday. You're seeing that JDST continuously is getting that up. In other words, you've got all the people selling their gold assets towards the dollar.

So the world learned that only the USD is where their money is saved. We have gone into a pinak wherein there is no alternative country. From there is no alternative to there is no alternative country. So you'll notice that even from my shorts, oil is volatile, sometimes it goes 78, sometimes it goes 75, 76 But more and more, I am still of the view that energy stocks and ExxonMobil are still continuous shorts. And I would still reiterate the shorts, no matter if it rallies tonight. Enphase is still a short. We view that these stocks trading 10% from all-time highs has a valid reason to fall, not just 10%, but probably 20% to 30%, which is the reason why we are shorting Enphase. JDST is junior gold miners. Commodities as a whole is a sell. You'll notice lithium albemarle is a sell. First solar is a sell. Labd is also a sell. Sorry, a buy because it's an inverse fund. So should Labd go 25.5 today, which I saw in the pre-markets, Labd is about 25.5. I would be considering adding on to it. All of these are hedges. This is a trading portfolio, so you don't see any longs here. I closed my longs here because I do not see a bottom in the market, or if the market tries to attempt to make a bottom, it will still be a feeble bounce. So let's go through a few things here. Okay, let's try to understand what we got right and what we got wrong. So gold is in the sell-off stage. Gold is breaking down, broke 1800, broke 1700 Gold is now trading, going down to 1400 So all the gold miners are actually from safe havens to massive bearish resistances. And because there was a long presupposition that gold was a safe haven, and so was oil, treated until today as a safe haven, eventually things break down very, very fast. So early on, we already said that crypto is going to be a strong sell, and we were correct there. As of today, crypto continues to be falling down. And while it might be great to actually short crypto, I looked at the risk-reward. It's not really that great, and you wouldn't want to short crypto names. Even if we also would not go long. So it's more like avoid that sector.

Let's take a look at the companies that we shorted. We said at Square, so looking back, take a look. Square was trading at 115 Upstart was 130 Palantir was near $12. Today, Square is what? 50s. Upstart is 20s. Palantir is 7s. So there is a lot of reasons why we advocated that from January, February, until May, the markets were going to sell off. And true enough, it did. Just wanted to share to you that we also felt that Sunrun, SolarEdge, and Enphase were going to be shorted. And the thing is that Sunrun today, you can still short at $30. So I still shorted Sunrun at 32 SolarEdge is about 250 today.