Russia plans to turn Ukraine into a landlocked state

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Russia's invasion of Ukraine has gone spectacularly wrong. So much so, that the Russian leadership is scaling back its war plan. After having ruined its campaign to take Kiev, Russian forces are now shifting focus to the south and the east. By doing so, Russia is getting ready to make its most dangerous move yet, seizing the Ukrainian coastline. The objective is to create a land bridge between Crimea and Donbass, join with Transnistria, cut off Ukraine from the sea, and capture the port city of Odessa as a consolation prize. It's a strategy that will come with heavy cost. Russia will be pushing its supply chains to the limit. And even if the logistics hold, it's unclear whether Russia has the reinforcements, equipment, and morale to push across southern Ukraine. The scale and complexity of such a campaign hasn't been seen since World War II, and the Russians have not trained for such operations.

High casualties are to be expected. But if it works, if Russia manages to turn Ukraine into a landlocked state, the consequences would be profound. So, let's talk about Russia's Plan B, because armed conflict is all about how one handles Plan B.

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Russia has bitten off more than it can chew. 60 days into the war, and its Plan A has officially been cancelled. Technically, the Russian military command called the first phase a roaring success and claimed Kiev was never the real objective. The Russian strategy was to bottle up Ukrainian forces in the north, leaving the south and the east without reinforcements.

According to the Russians, the Kiev campaign was a distraction. Frankly, that is nonsense. The war crimes in Butcha and Mariupol and the sinking of the Moskva flagship were not part of the plan. Russia is changing its war goals because the takeover of Kiev has failed. But this doesn't mean the end of the fight is near. Far from it. As recently as April 25, Putin said it was not the right time to meet Zelensky.

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Which means that the Russians believe this holiday all plans, even unlimited, are just $15 a month. A holiday deal this good obviously deserves an enormously expensive holiday song, like All I Want, Right. Okay, we can afford that. You don't forget the music budget. We're gonna stick with whatever's in the public domain.

Give it a try at mintmobile.com/switch.

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Shirvan (5:00)

If they can still capture more territory before ceasing hostilities. After retreating from the Kiev campaign, Putin can only save face by bringing home a consolation prize. Ukraine's warm water ports along the Black Sea coast, particularly Odessa, would do just fine. Since switching to the second phase of the war, Moscow has tuned its informational messaging. Russian MP Leonid Babashev said that Russia would aim to place Zaporozhnya, Mikhailov and Odessa under its control. He also called for a landlocked Ukraine and the secession of Odessa to Russia. This may seem blatant, but it's not an isolated view. Russian MP Mikhail Sheremet said that Crimea and southern Ukraine should unite into a single federal district of Russia.