Russia and Iran join forces with India

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This is a graph showing Russian exports to India. Here's another showing Russian exports to Iran. In both cases, there's an uptick starting about a year ago. The reference is unmistakable. After losing access to European markets for invading Ukraine, Russia turned to Iran and India to make up for some of the shortfalls. Yet, it can take years to achieve overnight success. And as much as Russian-Iranian-Indian trade has grown, the infrastructure groundwork has been long in the making. For years, Moscow has sought to bolster its trade along a vertical axis by ship, rail, and road.

Key to this is the International North-South Transport Corridor. By connecting St. Petersburg to Mumbai via Iran, the 7200-kilometer corridor will bypass both Western and Chinese geopolitical spheres. The aim is to make Russia's southward trade effectively sanctions proof and encourage new avenues of commerce. It's an ambitious project, one that shares more economic interests now than before the Ukraine War. But the prospects of the entire undertaking hinge on India. Getting New Delhi's full cooperation is necessary to make things happen. Russia's strategic goal, therefore, is to make the right move at the right time. But its diplomatic goal is to convince everyone else it was their idea.

Iran is a fortress, surrounded by mountains on three sides and an ocean on the fourth. These physical barriers have kept the country's borders roughly consistent over the centuries. In recent times, however, Iran's troubles have come not so much from outright conquest, but from domestic pressure, economic sanctions, and covert foreign interference. The Iranian state thus serves as a fortified land bridge between the Caucasus, the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia. But Iran's pariah status has left its geo-economic potential largely untapped.

Even so, nothing builds friendship like a common enemy. Much like Iran, relations between Moscow and Washington have deteriorated, at first gradually, then suddenly. And since the United States is the world's preeminent naval power, the sea-bound trade of its rivals is at risk. This includes the standard shipping route between Russia and India, which runs from St. Petersburg, through the Baltic, around Iberia, through the Mediterranean, and the Suez, across the Red Sea and around Yemen, to Mumbai.