Replay for the Noble Update Zoom Call (with Peter Boockvar)

George Noble (0:04)

Okay, good evening, everyone. Sorry about yesterday. I tried doing this yesterday in my haste, and I was at a location where the Internet was unstable. So it was god awful, you know, couldn't get video for half of it, and then it kept going out. So I really apologize.

I probably shouldn't have done it, but whatever. I'm happy to do this. We had a much bigger turnout tonight than we had yesterday anyway, so I don't think it's Sunday morning. Maybe it's not such a great time to do these things. So anyway, you can't please everyone because I did figure after dinner, 7.3 East Coast time. Of course, the folks on the West Coast are going to have issues, but then I got my friends in Europe who are complaining. So which is my friend Michael Kramer always says, you can't satisfy everybody. So I'm trying my best. I'm here for all of you. And so there we go. So there's, I don't know where to begin. Really, there's so much going on. It's just crazy. My head's exploding.

I went to a wonderful conference today. You can see I got this hat on. It's Garrick and Rosenzweig. These guys, they run a boutique asset manager in the city. They had a wonderful venue at the JP Morgan Library. They're resource managers. They're big into energy and mining stocks, and so we'll talk about that in a little bit. So I got my shwag. I got my hat here. Now clean yourself up.

Peter Boockvar (1:29)

Why would you do that? I'm just working.

George Noble (1:32)

Hold on. How do I mute everyone here? This is ridiculous. Hold on.

Someone. All right. So anyway, it was a great day. Got a lot to share with you. I'm hoping Peter Boockvar shows up. I saw Peter at the meeting.

Peter Boockvar (1:50)

I'm here, George. I'm here.

George Noble (1:51)

Peter, where are you? Oh, there you are. Hey, hey, there you are. Good to see you.

Did you bring your shwag? You got your hat?

Peter Boockvar (1:59)

I forgot to bring it home.

George Noble (2:00)

There you go. So Peter has limited time. He graciously agreed to do this. So I think we're going to go to Peter first. And let's just kick off there. Peter, we had a wonderful, we were together a couple of weeks ago on a podcast. It was a wonderful, very well received interview.

I don't know, you have a way, you know what it is? You just have a way, you probably haven't told us before, you have a way of communicating extremely well. It's not just what you're saying, but it's how you're saying it.

Peter Boockvar (2:25)

Thanks.

George Noble (2:26)

And it's really impactful. And I got a lot of really nice feedback about your commentary. So it of course helps that you're right more than you're wrong, but that's another story. At any rate, we have the election tomorrow. We can talk about that a little bit. Maybe we also talk about what we heard today at the conference, because it relates to energy and mining, which are front and center for both of us.

So I want to be respectful of your time. I'm going to yield the floor to you and go with it wherever you want.

Peter Boockvar (2:54)

One of the more interesting things we are today from two different people, one being Adam Rosentweg, was the possibility of $200 oil.

Now, when you think about what that means, it's actually not totally out of the ordinary. If you inflation adjust the 2008 crude spike to about $150, you get about $200 today. Now, to me, what's most interesting is their thesis is not based on a war. It's not based on the blowing up of facilities and the street. It more had to do with losing the growth rate of US oil production. I know that Adam and his partner have been making the argument that 15 years of huge production growth made the US the largest non-OPEC plus swing factor when it came to production to take the US to the number one position in the world and that we're losing that growth rate and that the oil basins, the shale basins, I should say, particularly the Permian are plateauing. And now there could be some other parts of the world that offset that.

I'm sure this is still just a temporary thing, because technology will always find a new basin. But history is replete with moments in time where there's some exhaustion of some big drilling areas and you get a supply crunch. And maybe even if the war gets settled and the strait fully reopens, that we're still heading into a temporary supply situation. At the same time, demand is still going to be pretty good. So that is what I think.