Red Flags & Big Wins: Lucas Swisher on What Makes Coatue Say Yes (or No) to an Investment

**Lucas Swisher** (0:00)
We were doing this analysis of looking at every, and this is why we are convicted on this strategy, is we're doing analysis of all the unicorn companies and the last round's valuation, the valuation five years ago, and then what we think, because we've met every single one, what we think the valuation of that company really is today. And what we found is 60% of the market cap is in the top 20 names. And 50% of the market cap is in the top three names of the entire Unicorn economy. So all of those companies added up. And that's our view, right? So you can take it our view versus the last round, they're slightly different, but the returns and the company sizes are very concentrated in the top 20 And so our view is we gotta just be in the top 20

**CJ Gustafson** (0:47)
Is this thing on? Yesterday's price is not today's price.
Welcome back to Run the Numbers, the podcast where we talk to some really smart people who know software and tech. Today, I'm joined by Lucas Swisher, Co-Lead of Growth Investing and Software Investing, Coatue, to unpack how one of the most influential tech investors balances public and private markets, leverages data to drive decisions, and stays ahead in a rapidly evolving tech landscape. We're starting with Coatue's evolution, how the firm has grown from a hedge fund to a major force in venture capital, and how Lucas thinks about balancing short-term public market pressures with long-term private investments. Then we dive deep into data-driven decision-making, how Coatue's proprietary Mosaic platform gives them an edge, where human intuition still matters, and how they guard against being blinded by the numbers. We also explore Coatue's investment philosophy, why they concentrate bets instead of spreading wide, how they win founders without flashy branding, and what red flags makes Lucas walk away from a deal even if the top-line metrics look great. And of course, we look ahead. What's next for Coatue? What's the trend shaping the future of software? And how Lucas separates real AI innovation from the hype? Is it all sizzle but no steak? This one's packed with sharp insights on adventure, growth investing, and what it really takes to back the next generation of software giants. All this and much, much more after a short word from our sponsors. Does your revenue recognition process feel like a total guessing game? Step right up and pick a card, any card. You're not alone. Revenue account is getting more complex, especially with subscription models, usage-based billing and evolving compliance standards. RightRev is here to help you gain control over your revenue accounting. 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