Prediction Markets, AI and the Future of Finance

**Tarek Mansour** (0:00)
Today, if you want to have an accurate long-term pricing of S&P or home prices or the jobs market, like some of the big indicators that we have, you have to have a very good view on AI.
You have to have a very good view on politics in a way it's trending over time, on geopolitics. Luckily, now we have a way to do that, which is prediction markets. You can actually capture each one of these dimensions independently, price them, get efficient pricing for each of these, and then feed it back into our traditional asset prices.

**Raoul Pal** (0:23)
Where's the future of markets? And we'll talk about AI in a sec, but very core level, for us to move from AGI to ASI, we're going to have to take all of the data, I mean, literally from everything.

**Tarek Mansour** (0:34)
There's an incentive to be a super forecaster. The Uber created an incentive to take your free time and go get people from point A to point B, which is very valuable. We are creating an incentive for people to go and seek out truth in the world. And it's amazing because today we really have the largest community of these people, and that community is growing over time.

**Raoul Pal** (0:51)
Hi, I'm Raoul Pal, and welcome to my show, The Journeyman, where we travel to that nexus of understanding between macro crypto and the exponential age of technology.
Now, I'm bringing back somebody who's become a lot more known than when he was first on Real Vision. He first came on Real Vision, I don't know, 2020, with this crazy idea that he was working on, and had just launched a company called Kalshi.
And the idea was prediction markets, where you could start to predict not just where markets are going, but all sorts of things, whether it's economic data or political outcomes. And we talked about it back then, and fascinating idea. I think you've been on Real Vision a couple of times, actually. And Tarek, and I thought, God, that's a tough job to get it through all the regulation and do something. And he got there and built Kalshi, and Kalshi is an extraordinary success. He's a great guy, really thoughtful. And we really riffed a lot on what this all actually means for markets, market pricing, how the power goes back to the people, how super forecasting is a new opportunity for people that they haven't realized, how companies can use this to tailor their risks. It's a much bigger thing than you imagine. And their entry into crypto and perps has been another explosion. Super fascinating, very much aligned with where Real Vision is and where we're going. And I think you're just going to really enjoy the conversation with Tarek from Kalshi. Join me, Raoul Pal, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto and exponential age landscapes. In The Journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world, so we can all become smarter together.
Tarek, my friend, good to see you back on Real Vision.

**Tarek Mansour** (2:56)
It's great to see you all. I'm very excited to be here.

**Raoul Pal** (2:58)
I can't remember when you actually first came on Real Vision. It was maybe 2018, 2019?

**Tarek Mansour** (3:05)
It was a while back.

**Raoul Pal** (3:07)
That's when you first came. You've been on two or three times, I think.

**Tarek Mansour** (3:09)
2021 maybe, 2020
But yeah, it's been... The first time I came, I think it was really very early in the journey. I mean, we were really getting started going through the regulatory, figuring out how to kind of exist, really.

**Raoul Pal** (3:23)
I remember talking about it, thinking, how the hell are you going to get this? How the exchange is going to allow this? How's it all going to work? Because it was a brave bet.

**Tarek Mansour** (3:30)
Yeah. I mean, some of these things take a little bit of...

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