Peace on Hold: What the US-Iran Escalation Means for Business

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
It's the Morning Drive. Fresh uncertainty is hanging over the Middle East after the latest escalations between the US and Iran. Even as both sides signal, they are still open to talks.
With investors watching oil prices, shipping routes, and regional stability, the big question is whether diplomacy can still deliver lasting peace and restore business confidence. Joining us is Dr. Zeidon Alkinani, founding director of the Arab Perspectives Institute. Hopefully, we can get some insights on the outlook for negotiations, for regional security, and what the latest developments mean for businesses and investors. Dr. Zeidon, good to have you on the show. Thank you for joining us.

**Zeidon Alkinani** (0:47)
Thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be here.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:49)
We've seen a pattern of fire followed by a truce, followed by a renewed escalation. Is this latest round of talks, or has this latest round of talks in Amman been fundamentally different, or are we witnessing a tactical pause, if you like, while both sides catch their breath?
What's happening now?

**Zeidon Alkinani** (1:11)
Well, to be frank, the MOU, which did derive these talks, were never seen as a permanent solution from the first place.
It was seen as a temporary ceasefire, if you may, that would have calmed down the escalation that was unexpected by all sides involved. It was also an attempt, as you rightfully mentioned, where there would be internal assessments by all parties figuring out how to return to the situations if it were to revive again as we are gradually noticing now. But this doesn't mean that all sides in this conflict are not interested in stability or a solution. I think it has been very notified and recognized from the early stages of this conflict that even both the United States and Iran, alongside the regional actors that have been impacted by this war, have been wanting and putting enough effort into wanting to end this war. In fact, there was a stage where we noticed that the days of the negotiations preceded the days of the conflict. I think the multilateral element of this war is what is complicating it, and that is due to the Israeli presence and element. This is also a notified issue by all Gulf countries that are arguably long-standing allies of the United States, economically, commercially, politically, institutionally, educationally, and in many different industries.
It was perceived that this conflict had only aligned with the Israeli approach towards the region, which made it very odd for many Gulf actors in the region, including those that were close to normalization with Israel. So these talks seems to be that they were, will continue to be ongoing, given that most countries affected by it geographically and involved in it politically, are impacted by it in one way or another. However, it seems like there will be a permanent scar in relationship between the United States and many regional actors.

**SPEAKER_1** (3:31)
It does seem that way. It's very hard to read whether these latest escalations will ultimately lead to a strengthening in the resolve to find meaning in the talks, or if they're weakening the prospects for that. The Strait of Hormuz to market confidence is key.
Iran has signaled it values control over the Strait more than avoiding renewed conflict. For a business leader in the Gulf, how do we interpret this? Are we entering a long-term era where maritime transit through the Gulf is permanently conditional?

**Zeidon Alkinani** (4:15)
I think business investors wouldn't have to be concerned about the legal mechanisms that would erupt out of this war when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz as much as policy makers would do. What this war has mainly conducted or created is that it has been transforming from something called the Iran War into the war on the Strait of Hormuz. And this comes as a sudden surprise by most parties involved, given that it was clearly not in the calculations of the US administration when they were imagining and planning for this war. It was also not in the calculations of many Western allies that feel like they didn't put enough effort in advocating against this war for happening, similarly to the Gulf efforts that were attempting for this war not to happen, despite their share of differences with the Iranian government and regime.
I can imagine that business investors would now want to look at already existing industries or emerging industries that would derive out of this conflict as a form of economic resilience. We've noticed throughout history, even particularly in contemporary history, that certain political crises and not even necessarily wars in this type of scale would allow many economic circles to notice gaps in the market that would be beneficial. I think finding alternative routes and trading routes for businesses to survive isn't a concern that would be a burden on the shoulders of business investors. It is a concern that would have to be dealt with policy makers.