Own What the Chips Produce, Not Where They Reside: Jim Chanos on the AI Trade

Colin Santucci (0:00)

Welcome to the Rigatoni Capital Podcast. I'm your host Colin. It is pre-market Monday, June 22nd.

Wall Street, weather-wise, not looking so hot. Supposed to rain all day, be super cloudy. I will start you off with a Gregor Capital post to make sure my screen is actually sharing today.

I don't believe it is sharing today.

The Nasdaq is up about a quarter of a percent. It's barely up. And Bitcoin has been ripping this morning, but now we're only up around 65k on Bitcoin. Back to the video.

And then it says, JD Vance is ending the war. Is that really true? Is it even possible to quote, end the war? Really, you're just trying to leave and save face, really? As in the US, in my opinion.

Columbia has rejected socialism. You know, I believe that is true. I just, I'm not an expert on Columbia politics. And I'm not sure why there would be an election in June, but I did see a headline about that, that there was some kind of political victory for somebody that's not a socialist. So anyway, let's get into today's podcast. It's my opinion that we're still in the, that we have begun to, as soon as the World Cup started, as soon as Juneteenth, which was a Friday we had off, it was a three-day weekend. You know, earnings is until mid-July, until the big banks report. You had the big FOMC meeting, you had the big SpaceX IPO, so you have these big financial media events. But in terms of the stock market itself, you did have an event because you had a huge sell-off, which nobody wants to talk about. The NASDAQ 100, let's just call it the NASDAQ, was down 6.85 or six, almost 7%, and what I would call some kind of whoosh down. It looked like there was a lot of leverage taken out and a lot of some kind of... It looked like a short squeeze, but in the other direction. A lot of people were getting their leverages taken out. You saw like a whoosh down, right? That was on Tuesday, like two weeks ago, and people forget that. And I was on the Investing or Gambling podcast over the weekend, and I mentioned it to those fellas. And Mike, the host, was like, I can't even remember what I ate for lunch. But I think that is the human race and the population of retail investors. They even forget we got this dip. Now, they can see it when they go back and they look at the S&P. But I'm really using the NASDAQ 100 That's obviously Micron is now like 4.5% before its rebalance of the NASDAQ 100 So I kind of like the QQQ as the example here of where some of the leverage could be found in a large market cap way to index. And obviously, the NASDAQ 100 is super liquid. We can look at SPX, I guess. Why not? For all you S&P 500 home gamers out there, you know, we got that whoosh. But I don't know if the percentage is probably as much as the QQQ. And anyway, yeah, that was two Tuesdays ago. And it was my opinion that if somebody was dying to get into this market, and I'm talking dying, desperate, they could have bought Tuesday's lows around 687 Now, it was hard to predict when the low would be, but somehow I bought the low. I think I was just looking at my phone at the right time and in the right place. I like to buy when there's like a flush out type of thing because I consider myself a professional buy the dipper. So I just add it to my position in the QQQ. That was the only buy I had made other than the Thursday. Before that, I had entered into Broadcom. So two really large positions. A few days go by and I realize I have just too much on margin. And I don't want to be one of those guys that got margin called that day, which obviously looked like a lot of people did on that Tuesday when the NASDAQ collapsed like that. So what do I want to talk about today is I just want to direct you to what I listen to and what I read over the weekend. One of the things I had read was Tyler Durden's Zero Hedge. Obviously Tyler Durden is anonymous, right? But this was actually by Seth Carpenter. That's right. Seth Carpenter is the Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, and the title of the post is Morgan Stanley, The Mystery and the Fed Dots and Why the Fed will be very different one year from now. And yeah, if you're a visual learner, I mean, these charts are really good. But you know, I do recommend what he's, the sentiment I got was like, yeah, things are going to be crazy different, but that doesn't mean we need to be bearish. I mean, there's nothing here that he had to state it that should really spook anybody, any long-term investor, you know, other than that he says the price stability quote, he highlighted important forthcoming, this is Kevin Warsh last week, he highlighted important forthcoming changes. But as with the policy rate, he did not specifically, he did not specify the likely path. The blunt statement that the committee will deliver price stability seems clear, but again, by design, the path was not laid out. But with the addition of that one dot for the dot plot, the median could have been no hikes.