Oppenheimer's warning lives on

Shirvan (0:00)

Julius Robert Oppenheimer, credited as the father of the atomic bomb and leader of the Manhattan Project, left a legacy that still resonates well into the 21st century. Some 8 billion people live in the nuclear age he helped create. And lawmakers worldwide still face the same moral and political complications Oppenheimer wrestled with, namely, how to deal with the risks posed by weapons of mass destruction. This universal threat shouldn't be taken lightly. In fact, today, the world is closer to nuclear ruin than at any time since the height of the Cold War. The doomsday clock stands at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been. Russia is partly to blame, but not exclusively. China is drastically expanding its nuclear forces. North Korea is on a missile testing spree. Nuclear armed Pakistan is collapsing internally. India is continuing its nuclear buildup, and Iran is right at the edge of nuclear weapons capacity. Still more, potentially destabilizing new technologies such as AI have raised the risks to chilling new heights. Never before has the nuclear horizon been this dark. The dangers of nuclear disasters are real. And some argue, nuclear weapons must be abolished before they abolish us.

When I first started making geopolitical videos on YouTube, it was just something for fun. Something to help hone my skills while I was studying journalism. Things have changed since. And while I have been fortunate to find something meaningful to me, most people are not. But it doesn't have to be like that. If you're looking for a fulfilling career that makes a difference in the world, I strongly recommend checking out the sponsor of this video, 80,000 Hours. What they offer is absolutely free. 80,000 Hours is a non-profit that provides free advice to help people find fulfilling careers and tackle the world's most important and pressing problems.

80,000 Hours is the typical amount of time someone spends working over a lifetime. 40 hours per week, 50 weeks per year, for 40 years. That is a lot of time, and so your career is a major driver of your happiness, but also a major opportunity to impact the world positively. The non-profit has conducted over 10 years of research alongside academics from Oxford University into how to find a fulfilling career that does a lot of good. Three things I like about all this. It's based on verifiable research, it looks to make a positive impact globally, and it's totally free. Go to 80,000hours.org/caspian and get a free copy of their in-depth career guide. Next, make a plan based on everything you've learned and put it into action. You've got nothing to lose by signing up. It's free. The non-profit is funded by individual donors and philanthropic foundations without corporate sponsorship or advertising fees. So make use of that.

Nuclear weaponry has come a long way since the first atomic bomb detonation in 1945 Much of it has been for the worse. The payloads have gotten bigger and deadlier. The maintenance budget has inflated. The infrastructure has decayed, and policymaking has become more reckless. According to the Pentagon, roughly half of America's nuclear infrastructure is over four decades old. About a quarter, in fact, dates to the Manhattan Project itself. Time and again, nuclear-armed powers have dodged disasters by sheer luck. During the Cold War, early warning satellites malfunctioned. Orbital launch vehicles were mistaken for nuclear missile strikes. Military drills were taken for actual mobilization. Technical problems triggered real-time combat readiness. And life nuclear weapons were accidentally transported in flight around the United States. In point of fact, one time, an aircraft carrying a hydrogen bomb crashed in North America. Fortunately, the safety mechanism prevented detonation.

The point is, the record-keeping for nuclear arms is flimsy. The fact that the world has survived for as long as it has without a nuclear catastrophe is partly due to sheer luck. But luck can't last forever. Since the 1940s, nuclear weapons have proliferated and gotten more destructive.

Russia claims two of its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles can destroy the entire east coast of the United States. Meanwhile, the American-made Ohio-class submarine has enough firepower to waste over a dozen Russian cities in a single salvo. The weapons employed today are the most terrifying in world history. Still worse, policy makers are engaged in a de facto arms race. The United States plans to spend up to $1.5 trillion to overhaul its nuclear arsenal by rebuilding each leg of the nuclear triad and its supplementary infrastructure. In 30 years' time, America will employ new fleets of intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear-capable stealth bombers and nuclear-armed submarines. But modernizing the nuclear arsenal has divided American politics into two camps. There are those influenced by Oppenheimer's arms control movement who believe the nuclear triad should be restrained because it is tempting nuclear annihilation. On the other hand, some argue the United States should step up its game and stop blinking at Russian saber-wrestling. But at a time of growing geopolitical conflict, it is not politically feasible to expect the complete elimination of nuclear weapons. In fact, with the way things are going, more and more nations are looking to join the nuclear club, while existing nuclear-armed nations are seeking ways to increase their stockpiles. Today, there are roughly 12,500 nuclear warheads, with about 90% of these either owned by Russia or the United States. Nearly 4,000 of these warheads remain operationally deployed, and roughly 2,000 remain on a dangerously high state of readiness, primed to launch in response to an assumed attack in minutes.