Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028

**Nate Silver** (0:00)
Partisanship is the gravity that dictates every election in the US., right? Like my job, don't worry, I will get criticized if we say, oh, whatever, Gavin Newsom or AOC is a 55% favorite and they lose. But like, but 43 of the 50 states stated, we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence who they'll vote for in 2028 And it's not because of rigging, it's because polarization and partisanship are very powerful forces that we can't seem to escape from.

**Jason** (0:36)
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All right, everybody. Welcome back to the All In Interview program. We are delighted today to have the one, the only Nate Silver on the program, gambler, statistician, podcaster, sub stacker. Go subscribe right now for a hundi. Quick hundi at Silver Bulletin over at Sub Stack. It's a great sub stack. How are you doing, brother? Nice to see you with your Knicks hat on.

**Nate Silver** (1:34)
I'm good. I think I have one more week to wear the Knicks hat. It's a little bulky, not super podcast video friendly. But once in 53 years, once in my lifetime at least.

**David Sacks** (1:45)
Did you go to any of the playoff games?

**Nate Silver** (1:47)
I went to a bunch of the Philly series. I went to, I think as Jason did, I was in Philly for like the New York City takeover of Wells Fargo Arena, where the hell it's called now, Infinity or something. I went to the Trump game, which was not the right game to go to. But I wanted to be there. I wanted to kind of cover it for my readers. I felt like it was a moment where New York might triumph out of this shit show that it was to get into the arena.

**Jason** (2:13)
You had to show up what, two hours early to get in? Three hours?

**Nate Silver** (2:17)
I am not a particularly prompt person. No, I got there at like 6 6.05 for an 8.3 game. You're supposed to get in on 6th Avenue and 33rd. I was on 6th and 30th or 29th.
It wasn't the least efficient process I've ever seen. New York has a way of getting things done. You just kind of follow people. Once you get in, it was literally TSA security. They literally look at your wallet by hand and they take your lighters and your pens and your vapes and everything like that. And once you get in, it was pretty normal. I did feel like the crowd was a little bit fatigued by the second half, which was a choppy second half where there were some questionable officiating decisions.

**David Sacks** (3:01)
Did you bet any of the games? And like, did you find the odds were off anywhere?

**Nate Silver** (3:05)
I had the Knicks to win the Eastern Conference Finals. And then after they wrapped up their series, I bet them to win the finals against either OKC or San Antonio. So I actually, the ticket was not cheap. I paid, it would not cover Jason's tickets. But I was able to cover my 200 level bowl seat with the profits from those non-homer bets. I thought the Knicks were legitimately overlooked in the East. And when you see a team that wins, like that game against Atlanta where we were up like, literally like 77 to 22 at some point or something. I'm like, as somebody who like studies the stuff and builds models, to see that kind of signature significance for that level of dominance over whatever it was, four rounds of the playoffs, like that's real. That's like not noise.

**David Sacks** (3:50)
Do you bet prediction markets or how do you bet?

**Jason** (3:52)
Big Tony.

**Nate Silver** (3:54)
If you are, I don't bet you're Big Tony. If you are someone who's perceived, so I've been limited by DraftKings and MGM. A lot of the traditional retail sports books limit you. The prediction markets do not. They're a consult for Palihapitiya Market, I should say. If you're a sharp bettor, I have other issues, believe me, with the prediction markets. But if you are a sharp bettor, then it becomes easier to just concentrate your activity on the prediction markets where you have very smart people, you have hedge funds, you're probably making bets in these markets more and more. But yeah, more and more, I don't want to go through the rigmarole of like, can I even get my money down? So I will admit I've gravitated toward those, yes.