Money Moves | November 13, 2026 | Hour 2

SPEAKER_1 (0:01)

This is VSiN, the SportsBetting Network. This is Money Moves on VSiN, the SportsBetting Network.

Jonathan Von Tobel (0:17)

Second hour, big thanks to everybody who joined us in the first, had a lot of great content from everybody. Dave Ross, Will Hill, Wes Reynolds, all of our tremendous guests who gave us some really good insight for the weekend to come. UFC, college football, NFL and more. So make sure you check out everything you missed in the first hour of vsin.com. If you're a VSiN Pro subscriber, you get access to everything we do. That means all of the replays.

And of course, you can just go check it out wherever you get your podcast, Spotify, Apple, all of those sort of things. Money Moves, like Rate, Review, Subscribe, would really appreciate it. Before we get into what we usually do here, we have our update on our Market Power Ratings. Do have a bit of news in the National Football League. Four different injuries for you that you want to be, take note of as we head into the weekend. First off, the biggest name, I would say, that came down today, Kenneth Walker, running back for the Kansas City Chiefs. He's going to be questionable to play coming into this weekend. Came in today with a quote tight groin, sat out of practice from Andy Reid. Quote, we'll see how he feels through this afternoon with rehab and through tomorrow. So real questions about whether or not Kenneth Walker will be available this weekend for the Kansas City Chiefs. Excuse me, Saints offensive tackle, Tielisi Fuaga has been ruled out against the Panthers. Knee sprain is the issue. Rams defensive end, Miles Garrett. He is going to be listed as questionable this weekend, but reports are that he is expected to play. And the Browns, wide receiver Denzel Boston, he's got a toe issue. He's going to be questionable to play versus the Texans. No real indication as to what is going to happen to him in terms of his availability. Sounds like a true questionable for Denzel Boston. So with that, let's head into what we usually do here, our NFL market power ratings for week 10 So again, for anybody who is just joining us, maybe trying it out for the first time, whatever it is, market power ratings are what it sounds like. This is what the betting market thinks of these teams. And we can deduce that by using Home Field Advantage, taking it out of these numbers, and then putting them on a scale, adjusted with futures markets and things like that. And so it gives us again, where the betting market believes these teams are rated. These are not mine, but it's what the money essentially says where these teams are at. But before we get to the actual ratings, I did want to point something out, and we hit on this briefly at the top of the show.

But after last night, so the commanders go out there, they get a win against the New York Giants.

What I found pretty interesting, which we should probably cover a little bit more here, home teams are now 66-63-1 on the season. Our own Dave Tulli keeps track of this, you can find this anywhere, but just three games above 500 for teams that are playing at home. We talk about home field advantage all the time, what it means, the value of it, all these sort of things. If you whittle this down now by the median margin of victory for teams at home, median margin of victory for teams at home is about a point, is a flat point. If you look at it in terms of mean, you're talking about just 0.47. So the average home victory is just about a half point. The most frequent result at home, margin of victory is just a point. So the whole concept here is that we have been using one and a half points for home field advantage. There was an argument to be made that the betting market uses two and I think we're getting evidence to that, that the betting market is actually too strong on home field advantage and that we've been doing this correct in terms of using one and a half and maybe there's an argument we should be using one. Home teams, again, three games above 500 from a straight up perspective, 66, 63 and one. ATS at home, 54, 69 and seven. So you're well underwater if you've been betting these home teams. So it gives us an indication that the betting market has been too high for teams at home, i.e. maybe home field is being priced too high. We're going to continue to use one and a half for home field, but it's just worth pointing out that maybe, and we'll see how this week plays out as well, it is worth adjusting as the season goes along. If you've been using like a two, well, it might be a little too strong and evidence is starting to mount that it is. And so maybe one and a half, maybe even one is what we're supposed to do here. Dude, travel is just not as hard anymore. Like again, we can talk about the loud crowds and all these sort of things. These guys aren't getting stuffed into sardine cans and getting flown across the country like they were in the seventies and smoking darts and doing all this stuff. Travel is very well taken care of. It's not as hard on these guys. Cross country trips are not as hard. The whole west to east and early start time thing has been debunked at this point right now over the last six years. And so, a home field advantage, we are seeing this season that it is not as strong as it has been. And I think that it is probably a trend that is going to continue. So now, with that out of the way, no surprise to anybody who's been following the National Football League. Guess what, folks? We have a new lowest power rated team in the National Football League. Come on in the Miami Dolphins with Kyle McCord getting the start. Lowest power rating for a team that we have had this season. If you're watching up on YouTube TV or vsin.com, you see them down there on the 71 line. There's the Dolphins, two points behind the rest of the pack. The Cardinals with Carson Beck will get to the Chargers and the Titans. So again, this is the lowest power rating that we've had for a team at all this season. They're taking on Indianapolis, Circus got into minus four. Rest of the market is at three and a half juiced. That would put you at about a two and a half point difference on a neutral. We're going to round up because where the market sits well over a key number. So this is where the Dolphins end up falling. Colts at the 74 line, lowest rating for them this season, but it is worth pointing out, covered last week in two of the last three weeks. So again, we were talking about highs and lows and buying low. Well, Indianapolis in two out of the last three weeks, and they have been their lowest power rating in last three weeks, at least they have been covering numbers. So maybe you're at a point where Indy is just a little too low. We'll see if that's the case here this weekend against the Miami Dolphins. But to this point, speaking of McCord, we've got a lot of new faces this week under center for a lot of these teams. So let's take a look at some of these groups and where they end up falling. And let's start with the biggest face this weekend. Fernando Mendoza is going to get the start for the Las Vegas Raiders. He makes his NFL debut here in Las Vegas against the Seahawks. Last week, the Raiders were on the 77 line. You see here, if you're watching up on vson.com, you can see the Raiders right there on the 74 line just ahead of the Cardinals with Carson Beck, the Chargers and the Titans. And to give some evidence right and math, you got to check your work. Go back to earlier this week, it kind of lines up with what we saw. Cousins gets traded, line goes about three points in the direction of the Seattle Seahawks. Well, last week, the Raiders were on the 77 line. This week, they were on the 74 77 minus 74 is a three point difference. So that's where you get here. So it does kind of fall in line. There is at least an archaic kind of base that we use for all of this that does make some sense week to week. So it's about a three point downgrade from Kirk Cousins to Fernando Mendoza. The question now becomes, are the Raiders with Mendoza this bad? Are they only two points better than the Dolphins who are starting Kyle McCord this weekend? We should also point out too, that for the Seattle Seahawks, we have seen them get upgraded. Remember last week, we had a big conversation. Hey, Tim Darnold is not playing. Here comes Drew Locke. It's about a five and a half point downgrade for the Seahawks. We had mentioned a thousand times over, that seems a little extreme. They were down to the 80 line because of that downgrade for the difference between those two. They end up winning and covering. Now this week, if you're looking at this, Seahawks are back up to the 82 line there with Locke. Points read equals with the Lions, the Packers, the Steelers, the Texans. So a two point upgrade or so, or a bump from the market with the Seattle Seahawks makes a ton of sense because it seemed like they were a little too low last week. Now we get Jacoby Brissette making his Ravens debut.