Microsoft to Take On Muse, Trump & Xi Dinner, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN

John Coogan (0:02)

We got some debates on the timeline. I identified four debates for you. You don't want to call them debates, though. You want to call them arguments, fights?

Jordi Hays (0:10)

I thought arguments.

John Coogan (0:11)

Okay, we're throwing down. We're throwing down.

Jordi Hays (0:13)

Wouldn't someone rather listen to an argument than a debate?

John Coogan (0:16)

Okay. First one, Microsoft. Is Microsoft about to have their Muse moment? They've launched CoPilot. Now they're launching a new product today. Is it going to be a breakout success?

Is it going to compete directly with Meta and Muse? Or will it be a different thing entirely because it lives in the enterprise, it lives in the Microsoft ecosystem? Let's go to Tay Kim. He says, shots fired. Pump, pump, pump. Microsoft will go after Meta's Muse. From Alex Heath's interview of Satya Nadella, he's doing the rounds. Quote from Alex Heath. He wants to bring autopilot's AI chief of staff to your personal life too.

It's not staying in Excel. It's not staying in Outlook. It's going to be cooking dinner.

Jordi Hays (0:57)

Big move going from a co-pilot to autopilot.

John Coogan (1:00)

Autopilot, yeah.

Jordi Hays (1:01)

It says a lot about their intentions with the product.

John Coogan (1:03)

Yeah, yeah. It is actually sort of the like, is this AGI, is this not AGI? Like if you're in the co-pilot mode, you're sort of signaling we're not really in the AGI era. Autopilot feels more like, although it's a term, it's a vague definition, it is significant in the brand term. So it's a hardened version of open claw. The agent gets its own computer, workspace and memory to work continuously. Virtual machine for everybody.

It'll have its own computer, workspace and memory to work continuously. When I ask about Microsoft's consumer strategy, he points to its 100 million plus consumer subscribers. Microsoft broadly, they're going all in with autopilot. Autopilot should also go to the consumer side. He sees consumer agents potentially cutting out today's middlemen, making that market more zero-sum. In the enterprise, he thinks agents will make the market bigger than cloud by orders of magnitude. We got room to run.

He's going to a 300T, $300 trillion company. I like it. What do you think?

Jordi Hays (2:12)

So first thought is that, again, everyone is building the exact same thing. So we went through this for the last few years, everyone was building.

John Coogan (2:20)

Everyone had a chat app. Everyone's building it. The funny thing is the lore on GPT-4, that was first available in Bing. GPT-4, the thing that, like GPT-3, GPT-35 powered the original ChatGPT, GPT-4 was only available through Bing.

And then everyone was like, oh, I guess Microsoft's going to make a plan, Bing's going to be doing AI, and this is going to be a challenge to Google. And then they sort of pulled back.

Jordi Hays (2:45)

Well, and at that time when Microsoft was backing up the Brinks truck for OpenAI, they certainly, I don't think it was, it certainly was non-obvious at that time that they would be creating a company that they would ultimately compete with as much as they are partners.

John Coogan (3:00)

Yeah, yeah.

Peter Steinberger, the founder of OpenClaw chimed in. He said, Microsoft shipped a really compelling product on top of OpenClaw today. We worked with them since March to make the code base ready for large scale deployments. And of course, there might be some IP sharing agreement, right? Because didn't, oh, no. Because OpenAI hired Peter, but they didn't acquire OpenClaw. Yeah, OpenClaw is an open source. Yeah, a non-profit. So anyone can build on top of it. Yeah. But what's odd is that I think Nat Friedman stated that they didn't fork OpenClaw. They built something from scratch. But there are just conventions. And so you wind up having similar looking .md files. It's just like if you build an e-commerce site, you're going to have a product detail page. You might have a similar site map and architecture. But it doesn't mean that you forked Shopify to do that or whatever. So the debate point is how big will this be?

What is the actual impact to Microsoft? There is the cool macro tech story, which is just that the models have advanced to a point where there is a new use case. They're useful in a new way, not just knowledge retrieval, not just go and write a bunch of code. They are useful, but that requires a new type of harness just like when the models got good at code, the harness became very important. We saw Cloud Code and Codex and Cursor and a bunch of other companies. Cognition really defined that era. Now, the models are pretty good with personal agent stuff, sending text messages, talking to people, integrating with Slack, et cetera. So the harness and the integrations and the partnerships matter. So we're talking about partners with Amazon.