Massive jobs revision, Kamala's wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions

**Jason Calacanis** (0:00)
Do we have Friedberg? Did he drop off? Oh, here he is. Friedberg's back.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:04)
I just had to take a leak. I go outside my office and then I come back.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:08)
Oh, you like a nature pea? You're a nature pea guy? Me too. I love a great nature pea.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:12)
I have this great office at home, which is like a building outside of my house.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:16)
So I like to go in the garden, take a breath of fresh air and just, you know.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:19)
You don't sit down to pee?
No, I'm serious. I'm not joking around. You guys.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:26)
I have so many jokes. I'm not going there.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:28)
That's a soy estrogen boy joke. No, we can cut this out. But my pediatrician said, HMOP, I think it's really important to teach your boys to pee sitting down. And even for you, as you get older, what are you talking about? It's good for the prostate. And there's like a materially different percentage in terms of prostate cancer rates when you pee sitting down, because you expel all the pee that just kind of gets caught there.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:55)
The dribble?

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (0:56)
Swear to God, bro. I swear to God.

**Jason Calacanis** (0:57)
What about a good shake? Wait, wait. What about a shake?

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:01)
Nick, you can cut all of this. No, the shake doesn't do it.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:03)
This is great.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:04)
Sitting while you're needing aids in muscle relaxin, benefiting men with tight pelvic floor muscles or symptoms of an enlarged prostate. Sitting to pee enhances stability, reduces the risk of falls, and minimizes messiness, especially for Sacks.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:21)
Whenever Sacks gets a new home, he puts urinals in. That's how much of a man he is.

**Chamath Palihapitiya** (1:26)
Sacks, how does your staff hold your body while you pee? Like, do they hold you like, do they sit in places?

**Jason Calacanis** (1:32)
History of the world, Mel Brooks.

**David Sacks** (1:34)
This study is like the vasectomy truck at the DNC. I mean, it's meant to emasculate men. That's the only interpretation of it. It's total nonsense.

**Jason Calacanis** (1:59)
Alright, the Labor Department has revised down the job growth numbers. As a number of members of this panel predicted, the BLS updated its non-farm payroll stats, downgrading- The actual job growth is around 30% versus what was originally reported. This means the US economy created around 818,000 fewer jobs over the 12 months leading up to March 2024 Number was originally reported as 2.9 million new jobs created, and it's more like 2.1. The Labor Department updates and revises its stats frequently. It gives disclaimers. But this is the largest and most significant revision since 2009, after the great recession and so the biggest downgrade came in the field, not surprisingly, of professional and business services with 358,000 jobs lost over the last year. We see that in all the stats of different tech companies and businesses, finance companies doing layoffs. Other fields that revise their numbers, leisure, hospitality, manufacturing, retail, makes sense, and a little bit in transportation. Here's a couple charts for you before we go and get some feedback. Civilian unemployment rate seasonally adjusted. As you can see, since the great financial crisis, we went from 10% all the way down to well below 4, and that's where we sit today. USA Today chart here of gains and losses since 1980 Obviously, that massive drop you see there of minus 9.3 million jobs was COVID, with the big quick rebound of 7.3. So overall, the country's in great shape.
Sacks, your thoughts on the revision? You obviously made note of this when we went through the numbers.

**David Sacks** (3:46)
Well, yeah, I mean, I predicted this would happen, and I didn't know exactly how we would get the correction, but now it's come out. By the way, it's not just this 818,000 jobs. If you look at the last 12 months and out of all the restatements, it's been something like 1.2 million. I can share the chart on that, but this is quite remarkable. About a year ago, I tweeted really fairly casually that there was a hot jobs report. This is around June of 2023, that I didn't know where they're finding all these jobs. I mean, all I see is layoffs. That was my reaction based on not just what I was seeing in tech, and all of us, especially last year, we're seeing nothing but layoffs in tech. It was also feedback from real estate investors that I knew. I mean, all new real estate projects had basically stopped because the cost of borrowing was so high and there was a credit crunch. New construction projects had stopped, refis were very hard to get. It's just that everywhere I was looking in the economy and the feedback I was getting from people, things looked pretty dismal. Yet the media was continuously putting out stories about hot jobs reports. We've been getting this now for roughly a year. And then what happens is that there's a revision. And the revisions have always gone in one direction. They're always a revision down. I mean, if the revisions were completely sort of neutral and arbitrary, you'd expect it to be like a coin flip. You know, you might have 10 revisions and five would be up and five would be down, but they've all been down. Yeah. So what I saw was a pattern of revisions down. And now we've seen the biggest one.