Market Monday: How To Handle Tricky Spots -- Jaguars WR and Seahawks RB (Episode 988 with Adam Levitan)

**Adam Levitan** (0:13)
Hello, and welcome to episode 988 of the official establishtherun.com podcast. My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, and it is time for the show You Cannot Survive Without Market Monday.
Each week, I examine the biggest risers and fallers in best ball ADP and discuss whether I'm buying or selling these players at their new prices. The idea is simple. Give you an idea of how the market is thinking about players right now, and also how I'm thinking about them. Reminder that if you want to use the rankings that the guys who won both the DraftKings and Underdog Best Ball flagships last year, $2 million each, you need the ETR Best Ball product. Obviously, I'm biased, but the reason all the sharpest people upload our rankings is because they know how hard we grind every shred of information to ensure those uploadable rankings are as accurate as possible. Our Best Ball product is just $60 and renews 365 days from your purchase date, so head to establishtherun.com for details. Also, for my true grinders out there, if you're putting in volume, you should check out the Solver Draft Assistant. As Sam Shepard, the DraftKings winner for $2 million, that's what he used last year. Link to that, the Solver Draft Assistant is in the Best Ball tab on ETR.
All right, going to start with the risers from the last seven days. First up is Tucker Kraft, Packers tight end up 2.2 spots to 78 overall. I think this is health optimism related on Kraft. Tore his ACL in week nine of last season. Did have some quote unquote minor damage to his LCL and his meniscus in addition to the full tear of the ACL. That gives me a little bit of pause, but last week at OTAs, Kraft said he feels better than expected, expects to play week one without any restrictions. Of course, we are not taking players at their word on their own rehab. I'd also note that Packer's medical staff historically is notoriously conservative on injuries. And so maybe Tucker Kraft has been hanging with Hellmuth and he's just practicing his hashtag positivity stuff regardless of facts. But the point is, I'm not playing Kraft right now as if he'll be 100% come week one. But not 100% week one doesn't bother me that much, especially in best ball where all the money is at the end. It's such a long season. Right now, we are at 84 overall on Kraft. So we're a little bit behind ADP. I think that's fair for a player who saw just 5.9 targets per game in his seven healthy ones last year and coming off this injury. So I do take Kraft when he slips past ADP. And when I'm setting up Jordan Love teams also, which I do like this year, the Jordan Love stacks. But I don't want to miss on a guy like Kraft who was playing like a top three or four tight end before injury last year. But if he's gonna stay in the mid 70s, I'm just, I'm gonna struggle to get him at that point.
Second riser, Ryan Flournoy, Cowboys number three wide receiver up 7.5 spots to 170 overall. I think two things going on here. First, ton, I mean a ton of off season hype on Flournoy from the Cowboys internally, from sharp media people, including Silva if you listen to his show where we released his rankings, and then also from Dallas Beatwriters. So a ton of hype. And then the other thing is, there's been rumors that George Pickens isn't thrilled with his franchise tag, once long term deal, etc. I'm not worried about the second part, the Pickens part. I mean, players on a franchise tag have like no leverage. Pickens probably wants a long term deal, but he's getting $27 million to play this year. He's playing. What's more interesting to me on the Flournoy situation is that while so many NFL teams are talking about and drafting and making moves at the tight end position as they lean into more heavy sets, more two and three tight end sets, I don't think that's what the Cowboys plan to do. I think Brian Schottenheimer will have a pure three wide receiver base, Ferguson on the field at tight end. That's their best formation, which means Flournoy has some shot at standalone value. I'm just a bit skeptical on how much standalone value there actually is on Flournoy. Last year when he was on the field with Lam and Pickens, his targets per route run was just 13 percent. That is really low. Now, if you switch to Lam off the field, Pickens and Flournoy on the field, and that's a setup we saw plenty last year as CD was banged up, Flournoy's targets per route run spikes to an elite 29 percent. So, yeah, there's a lot of contingent upside here, and that contingent upside is important, and I think it's notable and a feather in the cap of Flournoy. I just don't want to go too nuts on his base case. I mean, he had 10 games last year with fewer than 20 receiving yards. Now, all that said, it's pretty bleak late at wide receiver. I don't want to be too nitpicky. I prefer Flournoy to guys like Malik Washington, Dejan Stribling, Debo Samuel, Tank Del. Flournoy is in the mix for me around that 170 range, along with Denzel Boston, Isaac Tesla, Jerry Judy, Trey Harris.