Market Monday: Buy Or Sell The New Prices On Jeremiyah Love, Alec Pierce, Tony Pollard? (Episode 1003 with Adam Levitan)

**Adam Levitan** (0:13)
Hello, and welcome to episode 1003 of the Official establishtherun.com Podcast. My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, and it is time for the show you cannot survive without, Market Monday. Each week, I examine the biggest risers and fallers in best ball ADP, and discuss whether I'm buying or selling these players at their new prices. The idea is simple. Give you an idea of what the market is thinking about players, and also how I'm thinking about them. Reminder, if you want to use the rankings that the guys who won both the DraftKings and Underdog best ball flagships last year for $2 million each, if you want those rankings, you need the ETR best ball product. Obviously, I'm biased, but the reason all the sharpest people upload our rankings is because they know how hard we grind every shred of information to ensure those uploadable rankings are as accurate as possible. Our best ball product is just $60 and renews 365 days from your purchase date, so head to establishtherun.com for details. Also, for my true grinders out there, if you are putting in volume, you should check out the Solver Draft Assistant, as Sam Shepard, the DK winner, did last year. Link to the Solver Draft Assistant is in the best ball tab on ETR.
Oh, also, I think a lot of what I talk about on Market Monday here applies to season long also, but don't forget about DraftKit Pro or the Early Bird bundle for all your needs in season long streets.
All right, let's start with the risers from the last seven days. First one, Dejan Stribling up 34 spots to 148 overall, and Rising, also, Debo Samuel up 21.3 spots to 147 overall. Before I get into it on Stribling and Debo, I just wanted to spend a minute on the Ricky Pearsall situation.
So I really liked Pearsall this season. We started off ahead of market on him in terms of rank, but the market really went nuts on Pearsall for the last two to four weeks, and so we fell a bit behind market in rank. And yet, I still liked him enough to IKB, I know better, our rank on Pearsall a little bit.
So as soon as I heard this news on Pearsall, the PCL stuff last week, I of course did the painful best ball tradition like no other. I went to the Solver, fired up that free portfolio tool, and I searched my Pearsall exposure.
Just feels like a kick right in the cock, man. You know, I've done 69 drafts, I have 15.9% Pearsall in terms of exposure and 25.2% Pearsall in terms of fees. I have 2006 actual dollars on Pearsall, which probably could be marked zero. So what can I learn from this? I think it's really easy in a lot of spots in life, but I think it's just really easy to just say, yeah, man, you got unlucky, dude got hurt. But that's not really the way my brain works. It's really tough for me to believe that I'm not in control, that there's nothing I could have done. I've talked about that a little bit with the health preventative screening stuff. But in this Pearsall case, like, if maybe the mistake, like going above our rank for a dude off of a PCL injury, which by the way, in some cases seems much worse than an ACL tear now. I mean, PCL ruined Bauer's season last year, Kyle Pitts for a couple of years, Kincaid for a couple of years, Rashad Paramin's career. I'm sure there's been more. But anyways, my point is maybe getting overweight, drafting above our rank on a guy like Pearsall coming off of the PCL situation. Maybe that's bad, especially when there were other wide receivers that I really like in that range. Downs, Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed, Jordan Addison. I easily could have been flatter through that tier. So I don't know. I'm pretty sick about it. I'm still going to do a lot more drafting. Like I said, I have 2006 bucks on Pearsall right now. I'll probably end up with something like 20K in play on best ball, so it won't look as bad. But man, taking a zero on so many higher stakes teams and we're still five weeks from the season, it's just really tough to swallow. I don't know what else there is to say.
Anyways, as for the fallout, so I had already been thankfully IKB-ing, I know bettering my way onto scribbling before all this. I just generally think Prospect Bros are way overconfident in their takes, and that flows through massively to best ball ADP. I mean, Prospect Bros absolutely hated scribbling. NFL seemed to really like him. But he's the 33rd overall pick in the draft and he was going like 190 So just that alone made him undervalued, I thought. Then you throw in that he plays in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Christian McCaffrey is an injury risk. George Kittle is off an Achilles injury. Mike Evans is old. Pearsall hadn't been able to stay healthy. Christian Kirk is barely an NFL player anymore. So the question now is how high should Stribling go? He's going to play that grinder spot in the 49ers offense, the role that Joanne Jennings played. Mike Evans is going to play the X and Deebo Samuel doing screens, handoffs, yak stuff. This role that Stribling is going to play in this role, Joanne Jennings stumbled into 77 catches, non-internet 75 yards, 6 touchdowns in 2024, and then 55, 643, 9 in 2025 Stribling is a better athlete. He ran a 436 at 62207, really good jump numbers. I'm willing to take Stribling in the 120s, in that Concepcion, Coker, Dobbs group. I think he's maybe better than those guys. Now, I would have been willing to take Stribling even higher than that if they didn't sign Debo. My concern with the Debo outlook is just his entire game is doing these freaky, insane things in terms of tackle breaking and yards after catch. Can he do that at age 30 now? I'm a little worried, but going back to San Francisco where they know how to use him so well, I'd still take Debo, you know, in the late 120s, 130s. I do prefer Stribling, but again, I shade these San Francisco guys a little higher than pure rank because of the contingent value. If CMC were to go down or Kittle doesn't make it back or something happens to Mike Evans, it's just even better for Stribling and Jennings. So I take those guys a little bit ahead of rank.