Market Monday: A.J. Brown, Jonathon Brooks Fly Up The Board (Episode 986 with Adam Levitan)

**Adam Levitan** (0:13)
Hello, and welcome to episode 986 of the official establishtherun.com podcast. My name is Adam Levitan, I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, and it is time for the show you cannot live without, Market Monday. Each week, I examine the biggest risers and followers in best ball ADP, and discuss whether I'm buying or selling these players at their new prices. The idea is simple, give you an idea of how the market is thinking about players, and also how I'm thinking about them. Reminder, that if you want to use the best ball rankings that the guys who won both the DraftKings and Underdog Best Ball flagships last year, $2 million each, if you want to use those rankings, you need the ETR Best Ball product. Obviously, I'm biased, but the reason that all the sharpest people upload our rankings when they're drafting is because they know how hard we grind every shred of information to ensure those rankings are as accurate as possible. Our best ball product is just $60 and renews 365 days from your purchase date, so head to establishtherun.com for details. Also, for my true grinders out there, if you're putting in volume, you should check out The Solver Draft Assistant as Sam Sheppard, the DK winner, did last year. Link to that Draft Assistant details in the Best Ball tab on ETR.
All right, let's start with the risers from the last seven days. Going to start with AJ Brown up 7.1 spots to 20.1 overall on DraftKings. Hilarious to me that AJ Brown is up so much on the trade to the Patriots News. All the way back on April 20th, Schefter reported that this AJ Brown to Patriots deal was effectively done. He does not say things that big, that definitively, unless he's very sure it's going to happen. So we have been ranking and playing it as if AJ Brown would be a Patriot for roughly two months. We have him around that Pickens-Alave range ahead of Garrett Wilson, Devonta Smith, Lad McConkie. Clearly, the Patriots are a very good landing spot for AJ Brown. They were fourth in pass rate over expectation last season. The Eagles were 19th. Drake made 8.9 yards per attempt last season with a pretty dusty pass catching core. Jalen Hurts, 7.1 yards per attempt. I don't need to get into a bunch more numbers for you guys to understand. The Patriots passing game is a huge upgrade on the Eagles passing game. I mean, Stefan Diggs, currently a street free agent, only played around 60% of the snaps last year. He went 85, 1013, four touchdowns in his withered state with Drake May last season. So, I like AJ. Brown.
I think the Eagles locker room and offensive scheme was broken last year. And so, yes, AJ. Brown's underlying metrics are a bit scary. And people will say it's because of the knee issue or because he's 28 now. I think the reason that his underlying metrics were down last year is because he's a whiner who didn't get the ball enough in Philly, didn't think Jalen Hurts was good enough, rightfully didn't think the Kevin Patula scheme was NFL caliber. And so, my bigger point is that the Patriots know all this. They know that if AJ. Brown does not get the ball a ton, he's gonna whine, he's gonna cause problems, he's gonna read a book on the sideline, he's gonna yell it at the head coach. And knowing all this, they still gave up around one pick for the right to give AJ. Brown 33 million guaranteed.
So, I've been taking AJ. Brown even as his ADP rises here, especially on full PPR DraftKings, and especially because I think Drake May is a strong pick where he goes in the mid-60s. You know, again, back to this whole quarterback dynamic thing this year in best ball, with the ADPs the way they are at QB, I'm taking a lot of Drake May, plus Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts.
Second riser is Jonathon Brooks up 8.4 spots to 107 overall. Really, really sharp rise for Jonathon Brooks continues. He was at 121 overall on DraftKings just two weeks ago, now 107 and rising. I mean, this all stems from some relatively meaningless videos from OTAs. Some coach speak about how healthy and great Brooks looks and some kind of thin reporting from some national reporters and some local reporters as well.
I know a ton of sharp people disagree with me on Brooks, but I'm just not buying the massive spike here. I'm just not sure I've ever seen people so excited about a dude who tore his right ACL in November of 2023, has this very weird and slow rehab, gets back December of 2024, records nine carries for 22 yards in three games, and then re-tears the same right ACL, misses the entire 2025 season.