MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back

**SPEAKER_1** (0:07)
This is Macro Voices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices and other sophisticated investors.
Macro Voices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics, telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna.

**Erik Townsend** (0:33)
Macro Voices, episode 537 was produced on June 18th, 2026 I'm Erik Townsend.
The FOMC held its first meeting with Kevin Warsh as the chair, and the dot plot already anticipates a hike is more likely than a cut, as the new feds first policy move. But the really big news of the week was President Trump announcing a memorandum of understanding to end the Iran conflict. That announcement begs several questions. Is the war really ending, or will there be another escalation? Now, the White House had been widely criticized because the deal terms had not been disclosed initially. Then, when they finally were disclosed, Friday's signing of the agreement was canceled in favor of a docu-signing of the agreement remotely from Versailles. So, exactly what was agreed to? And does it really achieve all the goals that the president set forth at the beginning of the conflict? To answer those questions and more, Santiago Capital founder Brent Johnson returns as this week's feature interview guest. We'll discuss the Iran deal, Brent's outlook for the US dollar, and much more.
To address the outlook for oil markets specifically, I also recorded a live debate between Dr. Anas Al-Haji and former Goldman Sachs Commodity Strategy Chief Jeff Curry. And I strongly encourage anyone interested in oil markets to watch or listen to that debate. You'll find the link in your research roundup email or at zerohedge.com.
Then be sure to stay tuned for our post-game segment for Patrick's Trade of the Week and our usual coverage of all the markets.

**Patrick Ceresna** (2:15)
And I'm Patrick Ceresna. We saw some dramatic repricing week over a week with the Iranian peace deal coming together over the weekend. The most notable moves were in crude oil, where oil collapsed from the $90 level to the $73 handle, a close to 20% decline. This dragged gasoline down to $2.78 a gallon, off more than 10%.
The risk-off bid unwound as well as gold pushed higher, up about 4.5% to $43.21, and equities rallied on the de-escalation with the S&P 500 climbing over 2% to $74.20.
So, a lot of ground covered in a single week. We will take a closer look at that chart and the key technical levels to watch in the post-game segment.
This week's feature interview guest is Santiago Capital founder Brent Johnson. Erik and Brent discuss why de-dollarization may be more myth than reality, how supply chain disruptions and nationalism are creating second-order inflation shocks, and why investors may need to think differently about food, energy, metals, and other hard assets in the current macro regime. Erik's interview with Brent Johnson is coming up as Macro Voices continues right here at macrovoices.com.

**SPEAKER_1** (3:41)
And now with this week's special guest, here's your host, Erik Townsend.

**Erik Townsend** (3:47)
Joining me now is Santiago Capital founder Brent Johnson. Brent prepared a slide deck to accompany this interview. I encourage everyone to download it. You'll find the download link in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, just go to our homepage, macrovoices.com. Click the red button above Brent's picture that says looking for the downloads. Brent, I want to start with three really important questions because I think there's so much confusion in the system and news flow right now.
Number one, is the kinetic war with Iran, the bombs dropping and so forth either ending or winding down or coming to some kind of closure, yes or no?
Number two, okay, what deal actually has been reached between the US and Iran? Where does it stand if it's already been signed? Why does it still have to be signed on Friday? Why is President Trump saying, I think a direct quote was, oh, well, you never know with deals, we might have to go back to bombing them if they don't sign. So it sounds like it's not completely done yet, the question is, where is it? And then of course, the third question is, okay, what does it really mean for the outlook to return a full flow through the Strait of Hormuz? So let's take those in order, starting with, is the Kinetic War finally ending, winding down as President Trump decided to end this thing?

**Brent Johnson** (5:08)
First of all, thanks for having me back. This is going to be fun, and I'm not sure if we're gonna be able to cover everything. I think it would probably take five hours for us to do that. But long story short, I think the Kinetic Conflict is over for now, and they were winding down for now, but I do not expect it to last. Maybe it will last for a couple weeks or a couple months. I do not think it is over.