Live from Wimbledon - Men’s final preview

**Catherine** (0:11)
Hello and welcome to The Tennis Podcast, live from Wimbledon and presented by Barclays, the official banking partner of Wimbledon.
It is the final day of the Championships 2026, Men's Singles Final Day. And it is that Men's Singles Final between defending champion Jannik Sinner and French Open champion Alexander Zverev that we are here to preview. And we're doing it with the help of the Athletics Ava Wallace. Ava, thank you for joining us this morning. We have already given a lot of takes on this, on this Men's Singles Final.

**Matt** (0:43)
The floor is yours.

**Catherine** (0:44)
We have more to come, but it's yours. It's yours that we're most keen to hear.
And I have just received the bombshell news that the premise of a lot of our takes yesterday, the controversial IBM win predictor that was putting Zverev at 60% has had a rethink.

**Ava Wallace** (1:02)
Okay. 60%?

**Catherine** (1:05)
It was putting Zverev at 60% chance of winning. It is now putting Sinner at 60% chance of winning. I think it's important to be able to admit when you've made a mistake. And I applaud the IBM win predictor.

**Ava Wallace** (1:17)
Did they just have the wrong name on the wrong set? Was that like, the number didn't change?

**Catherine** (1:22)
You have to wonder, right? Does 60% to Sinner sound right to you?

**Ava Wallace** (1:29)
It sounds a little low to me, honestly.
I have felt so undecided. I keep going back and forth.
And then I just keep remembering sitting at home watching that Madrid final and just being like, whoa, this is taking on a new level of what is going on here. I don't think it's going to be anything like that. Like, I think Zverev has so much more belief in himself, and I think he has the game to back up that belief. But I don't know how I can possibly pick him in this matchup. Matt Ferderman said a really great thing to me earlier this week. Actually before, so this may be telling, before Sabalink Osaka, where he said, I'm really bad at predicting things that haven't happened before. I was like, that makes a lot of sense. That's kind of feels like where I am. I don't feel comfortable predicting something that hasn't happened in three years.

**Catherine** (2:19)
Right, yeah.
The Madrid final is so haunting. If you're a Zverev fan, and I know he's had the back procedure since then, and as much as winning the French Open does seem to have changed him mentally, I do think that his back had been troubling him for a while, and it does seem like that German doctor, whose number I am keen to find out, does seem like he was maybe a miracle worker. So things have changed since then, but he was so defeated so early on in that match, it was haunting from a sort of Zverev in this matchup perspective, I think.

**David** (2:59)
Yeah, and I kind of feel as though Zverev was almost beating himself in a couple of these matches, started by Sinner, because Sinner seems to shake him to his boots early.
It's like two heavyweight boxers coming into the ring and one of them lands early and the other one's like, oh, okay, well, this isn't what I planned for.
And I just don't think Zverev is being able to get into a mental space. And if you look at it, nine matches in a row and the last half dozen, not even close, one close set in like 12, and that was a 7-6 in Miami. And it's just as though the belief has just drained from him within minutes. And you've got him talking to his sports team and saying, I don't know how to play him. You know, because all the things he normally does that work against everybody else, even Alcraz, they don't work against Sinner. He just wrong-foot you. He puts you on the off balance. There is still a way to get Zverev off balance. It's hardly surprising he's six foot six. You know, he's an incredible mover for his size. He's an incredible mover generally. But if you can wrong-foot him, and that's not easy to do, but Sinner is the master of it. The only thing is I do feel like this is the first time he's played since Winning Roland Garros. And Zverev's belief has never been higher than right now. So is that a difference maker? Is there a way that he can insulate himself by holding early and getting into the match? I still think there's a chance that Sinner could break him early and all those demons come back, and it's one-sided. I think one-sided is one of the scenarios. The other one, to me, is one set all with two tight sets, and then a bit of a dogfight. Oh, a dogfight.