Kevin Muir: Why the Smart Money Is Selling AI Stocks

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When you're advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at accenture.com/spotify.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:33)
New Markdowns up to 70% off are at Nordstrom Rack Stores now.
Stock up and stay big on shoes, tops, dresses, accessories, and more must haves for summer. Join the Nordy Club to unlock exclusive discounts, shop new arrivals first, and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite Rack Store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack.

**SPEAKER_3** (0:58)
This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required compatibility and availability varies 18 plus.

**Kevin Muir** (1:23)
The people who know what best are actually selling, not buying. If you really truly are an AI bull, if you believe that this will change the world, you should be buying the companies that are going to benefit from all that AI, as opposed to the companies who are going to build it.
The more transformational technology is, the more likely it's going to be a bubble.

**Maggie Lake** (1:50)
Hey, everybody, welcome to Wealthion. I'm Maggie Lake and joining me today to discuss global markets is Kevin Muir, author of The MacroTourist, newsletter and Substack. Hey, Kevin, it's great to see you.

**Kevin Muir** (2:01)
Hey, Maggie, I always enjoy talking with you.

**Maggie Lake** (2:03)
I know, one of my favorite guys in macro. Hey, everybody who's joining us and listening in. If you would like to understand more about how real assets can fit into your portfolio, just hit the link in the description or the one you see on the screen.
There's a story out on Bloomberg today that next month is the beginning of that largest unlock in capital market history for SpaceX. So is it a buy then? Maybe. I'm not saying it's not like I'm not suggesting that once that happens, it drops like a, but to your point, that is an unknown, a question mark. It's of course, accounting rules that they're marking to market. They should, but you have to understand what it is. I think that's your point, right?

**Kevin Muir** (2:46)
And the other interesting part about that, you mentioned that this is the largest unlock in history. It was also the largest IPO in history, which is interesting in itself. And one of the narratives of this bull market of the past 10, 15 years has been that there's been a dearth of equity supply.
You hear it all the time. People say, there's just companies are buying back shares. And if you look at it and you look at the net issuance of stock over the past 15 years, it's actually been declining.
I had these charts where I showed the amount of shares at Google or the amount of shares at Apple. And it just, you know, you could see it just dropping. And that's part of the reason that these stocks have done so well. There's just been a constant bid as these companies buy back their shares. Well that changed last quarter. We know we had the largest IPO. We had the largest secondary with Google doing 35 billion or whatever it was in the secondary. And not only that, we also, as you highlight, have this unlock, which is very unusual. In the past, you'd get a situation where they would float an IPO. And first of all, the IPOs were never this big, because we used to take companies public way sooner than we did in order for them to grow. Correct. And now they're just coming as big, huge behemoths, like top 20 stocks. And not only that, the stock isn't really truly being floated. A little portion of it is. And you mentioned the fact, I think it's 60, 30 days after the earnings release, all of a sudden we get another 5%.
So in essence, we're going to just be getting the true unlocking, the true selling issuance of SpaceX is still in front of us, not behind us. And when you think about the supply demand picture, it is dramatically changed in the stock market. And everyone's just coming up with excuses why it doesn't matter. And these things all worry me.