It's not AI Doom, It's a Fourth Turning

Michael Arrington (0:00)

So just to be clear, everything we said before we started rolling is now on the record. He's evil. I believe he's a psychopath.

Tommy (0:06)

I don't think any US lab can slow down AI, because China will lap us, they'll win AGI and they win.

Michael Arrington (0:11)

Airbnb, I was like, I'm gonna do it, but I wasn't 100% sure it was gonna hit. But I put like 100 grand in, and that turned into a ton of money for our LPs. I broke the story of Google buying YouTube, and I had the price. And everybody laughed at me, like the Wall Street Journal was like, who is this guy, like this didn't happen. And then it was true. Never said how I got the tip.

Tommy (0:31)

Are you lying?

Michael Arrington (0:32)

Am I lying? This person said, I think crypto might be dead. That's what I was waiting for. If you have given up on crypto, the bottom is reached. Bitcoin realistically can't be stopped, and that's going to save us all.

Tommy (0:54)

Hey everyone, welcome back to The Delphi Podcast. Today I'm in person with Michael Arrington. I'm excited for him to join us. Michael founded TechCrunch from a Silicon Valley home back in 2005 He built it into one of the world's top publications. It's where founders, tech communities used to break breaking news. He ended up selling it to AOL.

You were one of the first people, you were at one of the first Y Combinator demo days in 2007, covering all the interesting founders, created Crunchbase. I know you said you got a lot of mileage out of this, but you were times 100 most influential people. And then you backed Uber, Airbnb, Pinterest, and founded Arrington Capital.

Michael Arrington (1:37)

So just to be clear, everything we said before we started rolling is now on the record. And I can also be like the time 100 thing.

Tommy (1:43)

Oh, yeah, for sure.

Michael Arrington (1:44)

Okay, so we can talk about Steve.

Tommy (1:46)

Anything.

Michael Arrington (1:48)

Talking about Steve McLaughlin, who was on one of your great podcasts recently.

Tommy (1:52)

He was just on.

Michael Arrington (1:53)

Yeah. Well, that was a very nice introduction. Thank you.

Tommy (1:56)

Yeah, of course. Thank you so much for coming on. It wasn't easy to get you. It's my honor.

Michael Arrington (2:00)

It's not easy to get me.

Tommy (2:01)

It was not easy to get you.

Michael Arrington (2:02)

This is my favorite podcast.

Tommy (2:03)

I appreciate that.

Michael Arrington (2:04)

Like I watched just about every episode.

Tommy (2:07)

Are you lying?

Michael Arrington (2:07)

So am I lying? No, I did say I don't understand everything. You get super tech, but you guys are just like honest journalists. Like it's just great to watch. So, you know, uplifting and all that. So, you know all that.

Tommy (2:22)

We're here to host the best guests. We're here to make money. That's the goal. Mike, you, every podcast I listen to about you, you always reference this concept called the fourth turning.

It's this concept that every hundred years, the world changes and we're in, it happens within four 20-year segments where everything's great, institutions are valued. It kind of breaks down. There's this crazy reset.

Michael Arrington (2:45)

Yeah.

Tommy (2:45)

Is that where we are right now?

Michael Arrington (2:47)

Well, it's interesting. Had you ever heard of the book, The Fourth Turning?

Tommy (2:52)

Not before Kelly told me about it.

Michael Arrington (2:54)

So I read a lot, mostly fiction, for fun, but I read just like I read constantly. And so I've read many, many non-fiction books. There's two books that made such a huge impression on me that I'll never forget them. One is Guns, Germs and Steel, which was, I think, was published in the early 90s.

Incredible book about how humans form teams. And if we were all the same color, we'd find something to hate about each other.

But seems to be very accurate.

The book was published in 97, 98, I think. And then just recently, I think one of the authors passed away, but just recently, the other author. We did an update to it, and you can just read the update, it goes back through the first book as well. But the idea is that... Especially in US history, but they claim this map perhaps. to Chinese history, which is ancient Roman, British, et cetera, is that you have these crises that come up every roughly 80 years. And the US, for example, either gets through it or doesn't. And so our civil war, I'm sorry, our Revolutionary War, our civil war, World War II, and now we'll kind of overdo. And the argument, there's two parts to the argument. One is, why does this happen? And two, what can we expect to happen? The why of it is, and I just urge people to read the summary on Wikipedia or have your AI do it for you, but you have a generation of people who are leading the country who are weak is the only real word to describe it.