Israel elections take place today - where do things stand now?

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

The Hard Shoulder, with Ciara Kelly and Shane Colman, on Newstalk, with Kiya.

Shane Coleman (0:08)

Let's go to what is likely to be the big international story of the week. Millions of Israelis heading to the polls today to vote in a pivotal election. It's the first time since the October 7th attacks, voters in Israel are choosing a government in the shadow of, of course, of the Gaza War, a conflict that has reshaped the country's politics, security priorities and international standing. We're joined by Bel Trew, Chief International Correspondent with The Independent. Bel, a lot of reports focusing on the high level of turnout.

Explain to us what the significance of that might be.

Bel Trew (0:48)

Well, the Central Elections Committee is saying that 55.7% of eligible voters have already cast their ballots. That's basically unprecedented. And the reason why that's important is we're seeing a lot of high voter turnouts in areas where Palestinian citizens of Israel are based. We know that they are coming out in very high numbers because they have suffered obviously over the last few years and are desperate for some change. There's also a big surge coming because of opponents to Netanyahu who are desperate basically for there to be regime change. And Netanyahu is feeling that heat. He's already told supporters they need to come out. There's been reports that he might want actually the polling stations to open until much later. He said you need to go to the polls as this is a fateful moment. This is very much seen as a referendum on him. He's got rising anger within the country because of the security failures over 7th of October and his inability to investigate or take responsibility. So a lot's on the line right now.

Shane Coleman (1:45)

I know it's maybe overly simplistic to ask this question because obviously we don't know how people are voting, but on balance is a higher turnout probably worse news for Netanyahu?

Bel Trew (1:57)

That's certainly how he's interpreting it, which is why he's imploring his supporters to come out. And that was certainly what analysts predict would happen. But it's also important to say that in the Israeli political system, it had proportional representation, so you need to get 61 of the 120 seats. But because of the proportional representation, no one ever, no one party ever gets that outright majority. So it's about coalition building. So this is just the beginning, because at the moment, all the polls are showing that either side, whether it's Netanyahu's bloc or the main challenger, are not going to get past that critical 61 seat needed. So we're going to have some days of uncertainty ahead.

Shane Coleman (2:35)

Yeah, it's a system we're very familiar with in this country, Bel. It seems to be a very tight race. Talk to us about how the figures might pan out and who ultimately could be kingmaker.

Bel Trew (2:49)

Well, the main challenger is Netanyahu is a person called Gaddi Isencott, who's a military ex-chief of staff, a security hawk. His son and his nephew were both killed fighting in Gaza. And he's very much taken the lead in terms of the opposition to Netanyahu.

So he is most likely to be leading that bloc. That said, even with all the parties behind him, he still isn't polling that critical numbers enough to be able to take the Knesset, the parliament, comfortably. So he's going to have to do some uncomfortable coalition building, which means he might have to reach out to the Arab-led parties. So these are parties that are largely led by Palestinian citizens of Israel. He's already said publicly he wouldn't do that, but he might just do that if it means he gets to be prime minister. It's really important to say, though, that he is not that different from Netanyahu. He's already talked about needing to take Hamas out by force. He's been quite a security hawk when it comes to Iran and Lebanon. He has boasted on the campaign trail about his Dahya doctrine, which is using large amounts of force against his enemies.

It doesn't mean it's going to be easier for the Palestinians who've been suffering under what the UN Commission of Inquiry is called genocide in Gaza or in the massive amounts of violence happening in the occupied West Bank.

Shane Coleman (4:03)

So even if Eisenkart does win, you don't envisage any massive change in policy when it comes to Gaza and Palestine?

Bel Trew (4:13)

Well, there will be some change. That's just because Netanyahu's coalition is extreme right. We have two very, very extreme right actual settlers who are ministers. I'm talking about Ben Gavir and Smotrich, who've been very clear on their demands for full annexation of the Occupied West Bank, which is massively criticized internationally as even a notion.