Israel election polls - the results so far

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

The Hard Shoulder, with Ciara Kelly and Shane Colman. On Newstalk, with Kia.

Ciara Kelly (0:09)

Now let's turn to the election in Israel. We're joined by Dr. Eitan Tzelgov, author and associate professor in politics at the University of East Anglia. Eitan, thanks indeed for talking to us. Has Benjamin Netanyahu defied the odds and the exit polls yet again?

Eitan Tzelgov (0:27)

Well, you can think about it this way. It certainly was an unprecedented election, extraordinary results. One way to think about this is to compare the results to what we've seen in Brazil or in Serbia or in Hungary.

There, a slim majority was able to defeat and topple the populist leader. The result, if you just look at the percentages and the seats controlled now by parties that oppose Netanyahu, they've won. But of course, the political arithmetic in Israel is different, and the fact that Netanyahu was able to, first of all, define the odds, become the leader of the largest party, but also make sure that the opposition is split, and a big chunk of his opponents are delegitimized, namely the Arab parties. So even though he is now, he's lost, his block has lost around 10 or 12 seats, we'll see the final results, he still controls the destiny, we should say, in the next couple of weeks. So it's definitely a leader that has surprised pollsters and a lot of Israeli citizens.

Ciara Kelly (1:49)

Is there a path back to power for him? Is there a path to, is it 61 seats, I think is the majority?

Eitan Tzelgov (1:55)

Right. So what we have to remember about Netanyahu is that he is very good in terms of delaying, in terms of delegitimizing his opponents. He's not a great sort of strategist, but in terms of tactic, he's great. So his blueprint now, which we've just heard about when he accused the Arab parties of trying to steal the election, is making sure that his opponents are not able to form a coalition, right? What you could say is, why don't the change coalition, the Zionist Jewish parties, form a coalition with the Arab parties and simply topple him? Well, they're too split, and Netanyahu is very good at finding defectors in the opposing bloc and he can do that again. Another tactic for him would be to perhaps be a bit more aggressive in the Iranian front and then, who knows, you might find him leading a war coalition again.

And the final thing that is at his arsenal is the fact that he knows that another election will never be as good for his opponents as the result that they have just seen.

Ciara Kelly (3:11)

Why do you say that?

Eitan Tzelgov (3:12)

An Arab voter? Well, because the Arab voters have just voted in 80% of Arab voters have cast ballots yesterday. That is a jump of 30% from last time. That is a protest vote against his policy in Gaza, in the West Bank and in Israel. I have spoken to a number of Arab voters yesterday that suggested that this is the first and last time they will be coming to vote to protest against the house demolition policy that Benghvill, the far right minister, has started. And if their vote is ignored this time, they will not come to vote again.

You also saw Israeli liberal voters come from abroad, fly especially for this election. And Netanyahu knows this will not happen again. So what he can do is he can kill any coalition when he wants to and the conditions for the next election will be better for him.

Ciara Kelly (4:12)

So finally, do all roads lead back to Benjamin Netanyahu remaining as Israeli prime minister, first in a caretaker role and then in the longer term as a head of some form of coalition?

Eitan Tzelgov (4:29)

Absolutely not. I would say that clearly Netanyahu now is in a position of power, but we have to remember that no one lives forever. Netanyahu is quite old, he is not healthy, and there's no clear hair after him. And it will take a major decision and a major compromise and reneging on a major promise that they made before the election. But if the leaders of the change bloc, the Zionist Jewish parties, will be able to find a way to work with the Arab parties, then Netanyahu is out. That's all, that's the magic formula.

Ciara Kelly (5:09)

Is that likely, Eitan? Eitan, is that likely?

Eitan Tzelgov (5:13)

Right. So we, you know, there are two or a bit more, but we can focus on two major parties among the Arab group. So one of them is Ram. This is a sort of an Islamist party that has worked within Israeli government before. They can do it again, they're quite flexible. The other faction is a bit more radical and it would take a lot of courage, both from the Arab side, the Arab party side and the Zionist side to try to form a coalition, but maybe political reality and the knowledge that another election will be disastrous will lead them to compromise.