Is The Rally Over? Has The Pullback Now Started? | Lance Roberts

**Lance Roberts** (0:00)
So you asked me a question earlier in the show, has the correction started? By all intents and measures, technically speaking, yes, the correction has started.

**Adam Taggart** (0:15)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money Founder and your host, Adam Taggart, welcoming you here at the end of the week for another weekly market recap featuring my good friend, the Adonic Portfolio Manager with the shredded six-pack abs, Lance Roberts.

**Lance Roberts** (0:30)
Yeah, yeah, yeah, whatever.

**Adam Taggart** (0:33)
Yeah, well, folks, unless Lance really wants to put his neck out there, I'll let him make the call. But he just sent me a photo of the Roberts six-pack pre-Italy trip, and I'll tell you folks, it's prodigious. He's in good shape.

**Lance Roberts** (0:48)
Well, for 61, but we've been on this journey together, and this past week, I actually got to my weight goal. So I had to send you my progress report, right? Yeah.

**Adam Taggart** (0:59)
Well, I hate to say that you say we're on this journey together, which is true, but you have crossed the finish line, and I'm like maybe halfway there. So you're crushing me.

**Lance Roberts** (1:07)
Well, thank you. I appreciate it. But yes, it's all going to go away next week. I mean, I've already got a full eating schedule plan. So next week, we'll be bulking back up.
They're not going to come back and start all over again.

**Adam Taggart** (1:19)
So no worries. Well, look, first off, congratulations on the progress. It's amazing. Have a fantastic time in Italy and it's all well-deserved. I hope you get a chance to rest. A reminder, folks, we're going to have for next Friday's weekly market recap, we're going to have Lance's cohort, our colleague, Michael Leibowitz, sitting in the chair.
Lance, I'm feeling even more confident than I was before, that the historical pattern of the market is falling apart while you're gone. It may indeed be happening.

**Lance Roberts** (1:53)
It may. I haven't looked like, let me see where the market is as we're speaking around. So market's down about 1 percent this morning while we're talking, but I think, I haven't run the numbers for this week, but I think we're going to wind up on positive side. For this week, which will be the 10th straight week in a row, which is pretty incredible. So all right.

**Adam Taggart** (2:12)
Is that true? While we're talking here, I'm going to pull up, but you.

**Lance Roberts** (2:15)
I haven't looked at the total week return yet.

**Adam Taggart** (2:17)
So I think it's down.

**Lance Roberts** (2:20)
Yeah.

**Adam Taggart** (2:21)
I was looking at it last night.

**Lance Roberts** (2:22)
Okay.

**Adam Taggart** (2:23)
Well, don't quote me yet, but also what happens by the end of the day as well, right? Yeah. It depends on what happens by the end of the day. But where are we? I think this is a down week. I think this breaks the street.
That really is my point.

**Lance Roberts** (2:40)
Yeah. I just pulled up a weekly chart.

**Adam Taggart** (2:42)
Yeah, you're right. Yeah.

**Lance Roberts** (2:43)
So again, we had nice straight weeks in a row. It's nothing to cry about.

**Adam Taggart** (2:49)
No.
We've been saying it's highly probable it's going to end very soon, and you were walking us through some probabilities last week of showing us how rarefied being in this territory was. But this is my big question for you, Lance. Of course, it's probably too early to answer with any certainty. But did the rally just end? I guess technically, if it closes this week, the upward momentum is at least taking a breather. But this has been a rally that you have been increasingly distrustful of saying, hey, this has moved so far so fast, there's going to be a pullback. Could the pullback be just beginning to start now?

**Lance Roberts** (3:32)
This could be very interesting, and we're seeing this actually today as a good example. We actually saw this yesterday as well, which is the market may not actually correct in the way that a lot of people are expecting. What I mean by that is everybody's thinking, oh, we've been up nine weeks in our growth, so we're going to have a five to 10 percent correction. By the way, that was also my opinion. This is the interesting thing, Adam, is that while we're all thinking that we're going to have this correction, we're talking about a correction. I've been talking about the correction. I'm right there with you. It's like, hey, nine weeks straight, the markets are going to correct some. It may not be the correction though that we're thinking of. In other words, like the whole S&P comes down because it was only a very small percentage of stocks that were driving the S&P 500 higher, right? It was semiconductors. It was the mega cap tech. The rest of the market was actually doing pretty miserably. What I'm sharing with you right now, this is the heat map for this morning.