Is the Iran war “effectively over”?

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

The Hard Shoulder, with Ciara Kelly and Shane Colman, on Newstalk, with Kia.

Shane Colman (0:08)

Now, the US President Donald Trump has told reporters he believes the war in Iran is effectively over after meeting Qatar's Prime Minister earlier in the day. But is this actually the end of the war, or have we heard this all before? For more on this now, we're joined by the former UK Ambassador to Iran and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, Nicholas Hopton. Nicholas, thanks indeed for talking to us.

Would you take a sceptical view of what Donald Trump had to say?

Nicholas Hopton (0:37)

Well, we have been here before, haven't we? And I think by my reckoning, this may be about the ninth time that the president has either declared that he's about to escalate the war or do a peace deal. And of course, something different has happened each time afterwards.

But I think the mid-term elections in the United States have certainly changed the context for US decision-making because the president has been given a very resounding message by the US electorate that his war on Iran is a bad idea, has been a mistake and should be brought to an end as soon as possible. So maybe, just maybe, the president might be thinking actually this is the moment to try and bring it to an end. I don't think he has a strategy. I don't think he has a clear idea how to do that. But this may be the beginning, and I stress the beginning, of an end game. But even if it is, it will only be the start of a long process then of negotiation, which would take a long time to achieve any really substantive long term sustainable deal.

Shane Colman (1:41)

I'm presuming, and maybe I'm wrong, I'm presuming there are talks ongoing between the sides, even if it's at a very low level.

Nicholas Hopton (1:50)

Well, as far as we know, there have been certainly indirect talks going on in Qatar, mediated by the Qataris, with other nations supporting that as well. But not direct talks between US and Iranian negotiators recently.

But the president's words and the visit by the Qatari Prime Minister presumably reporting on those talks to Washington where he met the president. He also met JD Vance, who as you know, has been very critical of the war throughout. And recently, since the midterm elections, has made no bones about it that the war was to blame for the Republicans getting such a bloody nose in those elections. Anyway, I think the Qatari Prime Minister talking to them in Washington may be the prelude to another attempt at direct negotiations, but we're not there yet.

Shane Colman (2:41)

How difficult will those negotiations be? I mean, I imagine Iran might be like they're in a position of strength right now.

Nicholas Hopton (2:49)

Well, I think you're absolutely right. I think the Iranian regime does feel that it will negotiate from a position of strength, and certainly the signals I've been picking up from Tehran suggest that.

They won't be in any mood to compromise, not on the way that the Strait of Hormuz is administered going forward, once it is restored to a more normal form of maritime traffic, nor will they be prepared to easily compromise on their ability to enrich uranium within Iran, for example. Leave to one side, obviously, the question of whether they can have a nuclear weapon. They've always said that they don't intend to have one. Whether one accepts that or not is another question, of course. But I think it will be very tough negotiations. The basis for those negotiations already exists, which was that Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamabad Agreement signed on the 17th of June this year, which brought a ceasefire in the war. The President of the United States signed it, the Iranian leadership signed it. So that will be the basis for starting a negotiation, but that is a long way away from actually turning into a substantive long-term deal.

Shane Colman (4:02)

All wars obviously end. Do you see a settlement ultimately being reached, but are we a long way from that point, do you think, at the moment?

What's the basis for that settlement? Is it just back to the status quo as we were before this war broke out earlier this year?

Nicholas Hopton (4:22)

I don't think there can be a return to the situation before the 28th of February, because arguably at the moment actually, the war has made Iran more dangerous. Certainly, there are probably many more voices within the Islamic Republic calling for them to have a nuclear weapon because it would stop this kind of attack on them happening again. I think also the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to ever return to the free passage of ships that you saw before the war happened. The closure and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has been one of the unintended consequences, and the Iranians have discovered what a potent weapon that is simply because they were forced to close it in response to the Israel-U.S. attacks. So I don't think we're going back to where we were before. Potentially, if those points in that memorandum of outstanding Islamabad agreement are explored, negotiated, it was a very ambitious agreement, and it would not happen overnight. But if some of those points are explored, then it could pave the way for a more stable situation in that region and a more normal relationship between Iran and its neighbors there.