Is Google finally back? (This Week In AI)

Shane Thomas (0:00)

I saw some kind of prediction that now, at the end of the month, Google will have the best model. It's like flipped. It went from like 1% to like 60%.

Abhi Aiyer (0:08)

Yeah. I mean, we've been talking so much shit about Gemini. I want them to have a win.

Shane Thomas (0:26)

Hey, everybody. Welcome to Agents Hour. I'm Shane, here with Abhi. It's October 5th. We're doing the news. We do this every week. We have a bunch to cover today. There's a lot of little topics, a few big ones. So we're going to fly through it pretty quickly. The first is Anthropic released, or at least it had leaked that they had filed for their IPO, I think a while back at this point. But now the prospectus of it kind of leaked out over this last week. And they talked about their revenue. They talked about their operating losses. And I think some people are giving them pretty hard times because they're targeting a very high valuation and their revenue isn't even close to what some other tech companies have. I think they're like targeting meta-level valuations with a tenth of meta-level revenue or something like that, right? But yeah, what do you think?

Abhi Aiyer (1:11)

I think, you know, the multiples are crazy now. But I think a lot of people are giving them flak too because of where the source of revenue is coming from. It's not really distributed, right? You have outliers that are making up a ton of your revenue. And if you ever lose those to Muse or OpenAI, then you'd be screwed, right? So it's all based on if they can continue the trajectory of getting whales to keep the revenue high. I think it's going to be hard.

But you know what? The lame in person in the market will probably buy on IPO day for a premium, like crazy premium.

Shane Thomas (1:43)

Yeah, I can't imagine they get to two trillion. That seems wild. I do know the growth rate, though, is tremendous, right? That's what people buy on. It is a tremendous growth rate never before seen. And so, if it continues, it becomes, potentially, you could argue, potentially becomes the biggest company in the world, right? Or very close. Is that going to happen? I think it's still a long shot, but that's what people potentially buy on. And we will see. I don't think there's any more news on when the date would be, whether it gets held back. I've heard rumblings that they might push it back a little bit. I think all these new model launches actually hurt them. This doomerism, I think, probably doesn't help them, but it's coming from Dario, so maybe he thinks it does. I don't know, it's like a bit of a game. I don't know what game they're playing, but I do think that they have a lot to show to hit that valuation. It's going to be very hard. It's an uphill battle for them to actually reach that valuation. But if people buy, you know, that's all you need.

Abhi Aiyer (2:36)

Well, not financial advice.

Don't buy at IPOs. That's my rule of thumb, personally, because market will correct. You're operating in a private market where your valuation, it's like whose line is it anyway? All the numbers don't matter and stuff. Then once you get into actual public market, you'll get screwed on an IPO price. So, you know, if you're really an investor, just wait, personally.

Shane Thomas (2:58)

Not financial advice.

Abhi Aiyer (3:00)

Yeah. The only thing I didn't get burned on is that Cerebras IPO. So what's up? But other than that, you know.

Shane Thomas (3:06)

You didn't follow your own advice is what you're saying.

Abhi Aiyer (3:08)

Yeah. But I was screwed for a while, though. So then, you know, finally it came back.

Shane Thomas (3:14)

All right. Let's talk about decision models. This is a new genre. We've been talking about it on and off, basically on for the last couple of weeks. This was at OpenAI Dev Day, which we're going to talk about OpenAI Dev Day a little bit on this show. We did a whole episode on it last week. So if you want to know what we think about what they launched at OpenAI Dev Day, go back, watch that episode. It's on YouTube, Spotify, all the places. But OpenAI released the Decisions API for lightning fast, constrained decision making powered by Luna, supports visual inputs and tuned to be able to make decisions in less than a few hundreds of milliseconds end to end. To which the founder of Jev said, begun the Clone Wars has. Because if you've noticed there's a ton of now, Jev basically created a new category. On the one hand, that's good. On the other hand, we'll see if Jev makes it out of their own category that they defined.