Is a Housing Crash Finally Coming? How to Win

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Jason (1:00)

There's a crash in the housing market that sellers do not want to talk about. But it's not prices. It's a demand crash. Redfin says there are 490,000 more sellers in the market right now than buyers.

But prices are still rising. In fact, they're rising in two thirds of the major cities across the US. So, it's definitely not a price story.

A lot of buyers, folks, they're just sitting on the sidelines, waiting for lower prices and lower rates. But here's the thing, my guest today says right now could be the best time in 10 years to find a great deal. Not a good deal, a great deal. He's called the housing market better than anyone else on YouTube, and he called this exact demand crash while prices kept rising. Mike Zuber from One Rental At A Time is back on the housing nerd. He's going to break down why this is happening and how to find one of these great deals. What's up, Mike?

Michael Zuber (2:10)

Hey, I appreciate it. That's a great introduction, and it sure has been fun on YouTube debating these crash sisters and crash bros. You're absolutely right. We had a crash. It was in transactions.

To my knowledge, nobody else out there called it. We called it years ago and have been right. We've also been right on prices being up basically 1 percent for many years. I have bad news for folks. It's going to be pretty flat on price for the next couple of years as well. There's lots of reasons for that. We'll get into it.

But yeah, I think, you know, I'm actually on record telling folks that the rest of 2026 could be the best time in the last 12 years to buy a great deal. And it really comes down to three things. Do you want more or less competition? Well, if you're buying, you want less competition. Check. Do you want more or less inventory? Inventory is up year on year in much of the country. Check. But here's the wrinkle, the real magic of the next five to six months, is just the fact that motivated sellers are going to get easier to find.

And life happens to all of us, and sometimes life happens in a very bad time. And if you need to sell because of death, divorce, job transfer, whatever, and you need to sell and you can't wait, you're a motivated seller, and that's where great deals come. So again, three for three. This doesn't happen a lot. I've been doing this 25, 26 years, and this is the second real market after the GFC. People just don't realize that. They're so caught up in the headlines about interest rates. I mean, how many times have people talked about mortgage rates at a 52-week high? It doesn't matter.

I wish mortgage rates were 9 percent. Because if I'm an investor, I'm going to write it with the existing cost of capital. Rates mean nothing. I've paid as high as 12 percent interest in my 25 years. But guess what? The deals made sense at 12 percent. So again, stop thinking about rates if you're an investor. Do get a buy box. Figure out what a good or great deal is. And then today, go get a deal of a decade or a deal of a lifetime. That's what's out there for folks. So people just need to get their hand out of their ass and do the work.

Jason (4:36)

Yeah, and I'm seeing the same thing even with, like, the typical home buyer out there, is that when they're patient and they're willing to look at a lot of homes, and I'm willing to write a disrespectful offer for them, no problem at all.