Iran's New Grand Strategy | Vali Nasr

**Demetri Kofinas** (0:00)
What's up, everybody? My name is Demetri Kofinas, and you're listening to Hidden Forces, a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs, and everyday citizens to challenge consensus narratives and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world. My guest in this episode of Hidden Forces is Vali Nasr, a professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University and a non-resident senior advisor in the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also the author of numerous books on Iran and the Islamic world, the most recent of which, Iran's Grand Strategy, A Political History, forms the basis for much of today's conversation. Vali and I spent the first hour of the episode examining one of his central arguments, namely that the Islamic Republic's conduct is driven far less by religious ideology than by a deeply entrenched sense of national insecurity and historical grievance rooted in Iran's long experience of foreign domination. We traced that experience through Iran's centuries of isolation and weakness, its loss of territory to Imperial Russia, and the 1953 coup against Mohammad Mossadegh. We then turned to why the distinction between ideology and national interest is so consequential for how the United States, Tel Aviv, and the West should approach Iran, nowhere more so than in the nuclear negotiations.
In the second hour, we examine the forces that have helped shape the Islamic Republic into what it is today, beginning with the eight-year Iran-Iraq War, the crucible in which its current leadership, its institutions, and the IRGC were formed, and from which Iran drew its doctrine of forward defense and proxy warfare. From there, we examine Iran's nuclear program, the effect its sanctions have had on the country's economy and political system, and how the latest war has accelerated cultural and political changes inside the country.
Finally, we close by considering a range of possible outcomes of the current state of affairs in the Greater Middle East, including whether a grand bargain is possible, what Iran would need in order to satisfy it, and what it would mean for Iran, Israel, the US, and the broader region, if the status quo persists, and whether that is in fact the more likely scenario. If you want access to all of this conversation, go to hiddenforces.io/subscribe and our premium feed, which you can listen to on your mobile device using your favorite podcast app, just like you're listening to this episode right now. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius Community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, discounted access to third-party research and analysis, and in-person events like our intimate dinners and weekend retreats, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to send an e-mail to info at hiddenforces.io, and I or someone from our team will get right back to you. And with that, please enjoy this incredibly timely and deeply educational conversation with my guest, Vali Nasr.
Vali Nasr, welcome to Hidden Forces.

**Vali Nasr** (3:11)
Very good to be with you. Thanks for inviting me to the show.

**Demetri Kofinas** (3:14)
I'm excited to have you on. I've been following you for a long time. Those who may not be familiar with you, you're a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University and a non-resident senior advisor in the Middle East program at CSIS. You're also the author of numerous books, the most recent of which is Iran's Grand Strategy of Political History, which I've read in preparation for this conversation and which along with your recent foreign affairs article co-authored with Narges Bajoghli will form a series of bases for much of today's conversation.
Before we begin, I have a few biographical questions. From what I understand, you were born in Iran in 1960, is that right?

**Vali Nasr** (3:57)
That's correct, yes.

**Demetri Kofinas** (3:58)
And you left the country in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution.

**Vali Nasr** (4:02)
Right at the time when the revolution was happening, my family left Iran.

**Demetri Kofinas** (4:07)
So what was it like to grow up in Bahá'u'lláhvíz, Iran?

**Vali Nasr** (4:10)
Well, I was too young to be involved in politics directly. I was in middle school and early high school before I left Iran. But I was very aware that there was a lot of political activism among young people. There was a lot of dissent. There was a lot of suppression of dissent. My father was first the professor at Tehran University and he was chancellor of another university. And I remembered that they were continuous ongoing student demonstrations. Students get shut down.