Iran "Peace Deal" To Change The World For The Better...Or Worse? | Michael Every

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**Michael Every** (1:00)
The words peace and deal are doing a lot of very heavy lifting in that particular sentence.
The Middle East is most likely not on the brink of peace. It doesn't mean that it's impossible. And we can unpack that in a moment. And the word deal is doing a lot of heavy lifting here because there's absolutely no guarantee that what is being flagged here, which looks to be a memorandum of understanding, or I would call it a memorandum of misunderstanding, is the actual case.

**Adam Taggart** (1:42)
Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder and your host, Adam Taggart. The trend change away from globalization towards nationalism and mercantilism continues around the world. From the man who predicted this over a decade in advance, what does he see ahead for both geopolitics and the global economy from here?
We're very fortunate to sit down again today with Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank. Michael, thanks so much for joining us and all the way from Thailand.

**Michael Every** (2:10)
You're very welcome. It's great to be back.

**Adam Taggart** (2:12)
Thank you. And I know you mean back on the program, but I also know that you're back in Thailand after having basically traveled the world. So I appreciate you making time for us while you're still recovering from those travels, and particularly making time for us. We're recording this Sunday night, my time, Monday morning, your time. Just a few hours, like two hours after President Trump announced that a peace deal had indeed been reached between the US and Iran. So of course, everybody right now is asking for the nitty-gritty details. They've not really been fully provided yet. Apparently, this is an agreement to then get together in five days and sign the agreement over in Europe. So there's still a lot of unknowns, and I think much of what's in this agreement too is we're agreeing to things, but then we're going to take the next 60 days and actually figure out how to do these things.
So there's still a lot of uncertainty, I guess, is what I'm saying. So lots to dig into with you, but let's just start with this big news, the peace deal.
How big of a deal is this on the world stage, in your opinion?

**Michael Every** (3:19)
Well, it's a very big deal just in terms of the headlines that it's going to generate, and it's a very, very big deal in terms of what happens next, whatever happens. Because, to summarize, I think, what you just said simply, the words peace and deal are doing a lot of very heavy lifting in that particular sentence.
The Middle East is most likely not on the brink of peace. It doesn't mean that it's impossible, and we can unpack that in a moment.
The word deal is doing a lot of heavy lifting here because there's absolutely no guarantee that what is being flagged here, which looks to be a memorandum of understanding, or I would call it a memorandum of misunderstanding, is the actual case. We don't have those details, as you've said. The only side that is releasing them is the Iranian Fars, F-A-R-S news service, which is quite interesting how that sounds like the word F-A-R-C-E, F-A-R-C-E in English, or at least I'm pronouncing it that way with my British accent, who are basically saying that the deal is exactly the same one that Trump vociferously rejected when they flagged it a few weeks ago and ended up bombing them again. So it seems extremely strange if that is the deal. We don't have the text, but I do think that at best it is, as you described it, some kind of loose performance based, you do this, if we do that, but the sequencing is very tricky and we'll move gradually over time towards addressing the fundamental core of this, which is the nuclear or uranium issue, where there is absolutely no guarantee whatsoever that anything will be achieved. In fact, we have already seen Trump in an interview with the New York Times in a very fast moving news environment, say, well, yes, if they don't after 60 days of negotiations agree to anything on the nuclear front, then of course I start bombing them again and I may end up being the overseer of the Middle East oil for which I want to 20 percent cut. So that's already out there in the public space. And if you think that says peace and deal, you have a very different interpretation of those words than me, but nothing can be ruled out just as nothing can be ruled in.