Inflation And The AI Supercycle

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

Looking for a more efficient way to trade individual equities?

New single stock futures from CME Group bring you capital-efficient exposure and nearly 24-hour access to over 50 top US stocks, including SpaceX, NVIDIA and Amazon, all with the power of futures. Unlock the best of both stocks and futures. See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/singlestockfutures.

Justin Nielsen (0:37)

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Investing With IBD podcast. It's Justin Nielsen, your host here, and it's great to be welcoming back to the show. One of our favorites, especially at this time of year, it's kind of like an IBD podcast tradition. We have Jeffrey Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Traders' Almanac, and gives a lot of great information on stocktradersalmanac.com. And of course, for those of you that have your almanac at your desk readily available all the time, like I do, it's great work that you put out there. Literally someone who grew up with stock data. How are you doing, Jeff?

Jeffrey Hirsch (1:12)

I'm good. Good to be with you, Justin. How's everything, man?

Justin Nielsen (1:15)

Everything's doing fine, yeah. So for those that don't know, Yale Hirsch, of course, Jeff's father was the originator of the Stock Traders Almanac. So again, he's been at this for a while. Did you ever like as a kid have to do data analysis for your father?

Jeffrey Hirsch (1:33)

Probably the most instructive thing I've done in my life for this business was to do the calculations for the intraday trading patterns and the daily trading patterns by hand with pen and graph paper and an adding machine. I still keep the little ruler that I used to run down the Barron's Lab pages and underline. It's got red highlights and underline half-hour ticks and updates. So yeah, that was, you know, by hand was very instructive. It was a great experience.

Then I converted it to Excel when I started working for him full-time in the 90s.

Justin Nielsen (2:08)

Yeah. Well, there's nothing wrong with putting your own spin on things, and of course, I mean, hey, I'm an Excel lover, and that's one of the things, again, I love about the Stock Traders Almanac, if it's got tables and charts and everything galore, all the wonderful things that you can do with Excel, right? And one nice little place. Well, Jeffrey, I think the first thing that we need to get through here is, I mean, it was a rough day in the market today, but you really kind of take a bigger picture. You really are kind of looking at a little bit more of how things are playing out in the cycle.

So give me your overall take on why you're a little bit more bullish than maybe some people are about the market right now.

Jeffrey Hirsch (2:53)

Well, I mean, the thing that we've done in the Oman Ag over the years and that I do is we look at long-term cycles and short-term cycles, intraday cycles. We're looking at the whole span of market cycles and patterns, and some of them aren't necessarily pure annual or based upon a certain number of years. I mean, the big cycle, the super boom cycle that my father discovered back in 76 for these 500% plus market moves following war and inflation and built on enabling technology, what I call culturally enabling paradigm shifting technology, is the long-term forecast. It's a framework. This chart that I drew that's on page 100 of the 2027 Stock Traders Oman Act, also in my newsletter, Oman Act Investor at stocktradersomanact.com is a projection of framework. I did the same exercise back in 2011 when I came out with that super boom book with my forecast for Dow 38820 that came in a year early. And I've got one of the old charts in my slide decks that I show when I present to people, and it's uncanny to me how well it tracked them. And I took all of the historical knowledge, the four-year cycle, the one-year seasonal patterns, and just sort of went snake-eyed and looked at what is likely to happen over time. So this is built on inflation, tokenization of the stocks, AI, quantum computing, all this stuff. So what's going on here in October is another story. I mean, it's the near term, and this is October phobia. This is real. We talked about this all the time in the Almanac. Yale first published it in 69 You can look at my feed. I just retweeted October phobia is real. Don't get spooked.

It's something that happens. It's the calendar. It's the October 31st Mutual Fund deadline that forces funds to make transactions and reconcile accounting. It's that time of the year when there's a psyche change in humans with the weather and the seasons.