I Just Revealed My Current Portfolio… | Anthony & John Pompliano

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**Anthony Pompliano** (0:56)
Everyone who's worried about bitcoins lost their mind. I like the fact that the things I own go through these periods where people don't like them. I do not want to own assets that are always in favor, because if they're always in favor, that means they're popular. If they're popular, that means they're crowded. If they're crowded, that means the return has been arbed away. And so I actually want things that go in and out of favor, because that means that the things that are out of favor likely have a lot more asymmetry to them. They have a lot more potential return in the future. And so that volatility is really important. What's going on, guys? Today we've got a great conversation with John Pompliano. He interviews me all about Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve, inflation expectations, interest rates, the AI CapEx question, what's going on with the Mag-7, the S&P 500, Bitcoin, we talk about SpaceX and many, many other things. And I even explain exactly how I think about investing right now in public and private markets. And I talk about some of the investments I've allocated to in my portfolio. Here's my latest conversation with John Pompliano.
All right, John, what's first topic?

**John Pompliano** (1:56)
All right, Mag-7 sell off recently. Is this evaluation reset or is this the market kind of rethinking this whole AI trade?

**Anthony Pompliano** (2:03)
Well, I think the big reason why the Mag-7 has been selling off is because they're long duration assets. So they're very sensitive to inflation. And people were very worried about the Iran War, the spiking energy prices, and they thought that inflation was coming. As I have said, over and over and over again, in 2025, tariffs are not going to be inflationary. The second thing I said is that the Iran War, as long as it was short sighted, it was not going to be some multi-year thing, then there was going to be a short term spike in prices, which we've seen in the energy. But ultimately inflation was not going to be a long term problem. A huge reason is because there's the deflationary forces that are here in the US economy. Now, of course, there are going to be people who say, oh my God, inflation went up above 3%.
It is high, it is high. No, it is not, right? What people were predicting, if you go back and you look, is everyone somehow got their brain broken on inflation because they saw it go over 9% and they just thought that happens all the time. There are very few times in your lifetime where inflation is going to go over 9%.
If I remember correctly, the last time that inflation went over 9% was back in like the 70s. That's before I was born. So my entire lifetime, one time it went over 9%.
Now, it was horrific. It was very obvious to see that it was going to happen. And if we were paying attention in 2020, we're printing trillions of dollars and putting interest rates at zero, of course we were going to get high inflation. But that is a very different manipulation than when you see things like the Iran war or tariffs. And so if you go and you look at the Mag-7, people are basically have two big concerns. The first is if there's going to be higher inflation, then you get these long duration assets that are very sensitive to that. Therefore they sell off. Okay, fine. Get some like multiple compression. The second thing though, is that everyone's worried about the AI CapEx spending. And they're saying, wait a minute, these companies are plowing tons of money into CapEx. And if they plow tons of money into CapEx, it means free cash flow is going to go down. If free cash flow goes down, doesn't that mean the company should be worth less in the future? I'm not going to make as much money from a cash flow perspective. And so ultimately, I think there's two things that are going to play out. Inflation is not going to be nearly as big of a problem as people think it's going to be. You're already starting to see this, right? Energy was responsible for 60% of all increase in the inflation number. So it's all energy. That's what's driving these moves. When energy prices come back down, oil now is below 80 bucks.