How Will The 2024 Election Play Out? - Nate Silver - #846

**Chris Williamson** (0:00)
Hello everybody, welcome back to the show. My guest today is Nate Silver. He's a statistician, a writer and founder of FiveThirtyEight. No one truly knows who will win any election, but if anyone does, it's Nate. He's the man behind the most accurate, sophisticated polling data assessments in America, and because of that, has an insight into modern culture like pretty much no one else. Expect to learn why this election cycle differs from other ones, just how complex election prediction models are statistically, what the most important topics of this election are for each candidate, whether there is ever a chance for a third party option to become president, the role of the media in determining who wins, and much more. Nate is a pretty unique guy. He's sort of got this Chad genius energy about him and yet works in the nerdiest area of statistics that you can. Super into sports, I think he won $700,000 in private poker games while writing this book, and yet also is the most respected pollster in all of America. So yeah, strap in for this one. This episode is brought to you by 8 Sleep. I have been using my 8 Sleep mattress for years, and I literally cannot imagine life without it. Having a actively cooled and heated mattress is the game changer. Now they have launched their newest generation pod, the Pod 4 Ultra. The Pod 4 Ultra can cool down each side of the bed up to 20 degrees below room temperature, keeping you and your partner cool. And for those of you who snore heavily, it can detect your snoring and automatically lift your head a few degrees to improve your airflow and stop it. This is your 3000 stuff. It cools, it heats, it elevates, and it is clinically proven to give you up to one hour more of quality sleep every night. Best of all, they're shipped to the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Europe and Australia. You can get $350 off the Pod 4 Ultra by going to the link in the show notes below or heading to eightsleep.com/modernwisdomusing the code Modern Wisdom. A checkout, that's eightsleep.com/modernwisdom and Modern Wisdom. A checkout. This episode is brought to you by Whoop. Whoop is a 24 seven health and fitness coach that tracks your sleep, strain, recovery, stress, and more to provide personalized insights that help you reach your goals. Each morning, Whoop gives you a recovery score that act as your daily guide for how much you should exert yourself. At the end of the day, you get a recommendation for your ideal bedtime. You can also track over 140 different habits and behaviors to see how they impact your overall health. It basically means you can stop guessing about what's happening inside of your body by wearing a small thing on your wrist that tracks absolutely everything. Plus you can join for free, pay nothing for the brand new Whoop 4 strap. Plus you get your first month for free and there's a 30 day money back guarantee. So you can buy it for free, try it for free. If you do not like it after 29 days, they will give you your money back. Right now you can get that free Whoop 4 strap and that 30 day money back guarantee by going to join.whoop.com/modernwisdom. That's join.whoop.com/modernwisdom.
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What is this period of the cycle like for you?

**Nate Silver** (4:32)
It's pretty insane. I mean, I liken it to if you're like running some lobster stand in Maine, then in August, you're going to be really busy day and night. That's kind of your busy season. I mean, I try to stay relatively grounded. It's not my first rodeo covering an election campaign. Not my first involving Trump.

**Chris Williamson** (4:49)