How we’ll actually ditch fossil fuels — by the numbers | Michael Liebreich

Michael Liebreich (0:00)

So, when people talk about primary energy, one of two things is happening. Either they don't know what they're talking about, or they do know what they're talking about, but they hope that you don't.

Elise Hu (0:18)

You are listening to TED Talks Daily, where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise Hugh.

These days, you'll hear plenty of people argue that the shift to clean energy has stalled. Some say we should simply accept our dependence on fossil fuels. Michael Liebreich has spent more than two decades tracking energy data, and he thinks those critics are looking at the wrong numbers. Take wind and solar.

Michael Liebreich (0:45)

They now account for 20 percent of all global electricity, and that is despite the fact that demand has doubled over that period.

So you've got solar doubling every three years. You've got wind doubling every five years.

Elise Hu (1:05)

In his talk, Michael, who founded the research team that became Bloomberg NEF, explains what the usual measures of progress leave out. He even builds a model of the entire global energy system that fits on four lines of a spreadsheet. And he says history offers a clue about how this shift will actually happen.

Michael Liebreich (1:25)

So when we went from horses to cars, we didn't do it by banning horses. We did it by building and selling cars, building.

When we went from landlines to mobile digital telephony, we didn't do it by banning landlines. We did it by building and selling mobile phones.

Elise Hu (1:47)

Michael also explains why electrifying everything from trucks to home heating could be the next big leap and what AI might have to do with it. That's coming up right after a short break.

SPEAKER_3 (2:07)

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Elise Hu (2:47)

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And now our TED Talk of the day.

Michael Liebreich (4:16)

So you may have heard that the clean energy transition has failed, and that we should be pragmatic, which means accepting our almost complete and permanent dependence on fossil fuels. And I'm here to tell you that is wrong.

Now, I'm also here to tell you, if you think that the transition is going to be heralded by this dramatic reduction in fossil fuel use and in emissions, then I'm afraid that model has failed. So let's look at how it might play out. And let's start with some data.

Elise Hu (4:55)

Hey, y'all, Elise here. A slide reads, Global Share Power Generation by Source, 1985 through 2026

On the graph, you'll see lines for fossil fuel usage like coal, gas, and nuclear mostly going down over time, and a green line of non-hydrogen renewables curving steadily up, especially starting around 2015