How to Find Sure Things on Kalshi | Prediction Markets #1

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
Are you really buying a car online on Autotrader right now?

**SPEAKER_2** (0:02)
Really, I can get super specific with dealer listings and see cars based on my budget. You can really have it delivered. Or pick it up.

**James Altucher** (0:09)
Mommy, look! I think Kate is walking up the slide.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:11)
Really? Autotrader, buy your car online. Really?

**James Altucher** (0:17)
Hey sweetie, your mother showed me this Carvana thing for selling the car. I'm gonna give it a try. Wish me luck.

**SPEAKER_4** (0:23)
Me again, I put in the license plate, it gave me an offer. Unbelievable. Okay, I accepted the offer. They're picking it up Tuesday from the driveway.

**James Altucher** (0:32)
I haven't even left my chair.

**SPEAKER_4** (0:34)
It's done. The car is gone. I'm holding a check.

**James Altucher** (0:37)
Anyway, Carvana.

**SPEAKER_4** (0:38)
Give it a whirl.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:39)
Love you.

**SPEAKER_4** (0:40)
So good, you'll want to leave a voicemail about it.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:42)
Sell your car today on Carvana. Pick up fees may apply.

**SPEAKER_4** (0:48)
Today on The James Altucher Show.

**James Altucher** (0:52)
The key is you always want to get an unfair advantage.
You don't want to bet on things that you don't really know, but you have a feeling about. That's kind of a silly way to bet. When something is almost a sure thing, people don't bet on it. It's like hundreds of percent annualized return. By annualized, I mean, it's only a five-day bet. I'm going to make five percent.
How many five-day stretches are there in a year?
And so if you make five percent 77 times in one year, it compounds into a lot of money.

**SPEAKER_4** (1:27)
This isn't your average business podcast, and he's not your average host. This is The James Altucher Show.

**James Altucher** (1:46)
So I want to talk about prediction markets because basically it's a fun way to invest or gamble, depending on what your appetite is. With prediction markets like Kalshi, K-A-L-S-H-I, you could bet on everything from the weather, like what will the weather be today in Chicago, to elections, like who will win, the congressional race at such and such place. You could bet on who's gonna be an Oscar winner. You could bet on who's gonna win the soccer matches.
There's also interesting what's called markets. You could bet on how many times will Donald Trump say the word Newsome in a speech. How many people will check in to the TSA at all the US airports this week? And so you can bet on all sorts of things. And so the question is, is there a way to make money and get an advantage on the prediction markets? So first, how does it work? Basically, I'll just give a very simple example. Let's say there's a market on Kalshi. Will JD Vance run for president in 2028?
And let's say, I'm just making the numbers up. Let's say one share of JD Vance on who will run for president in the United States cost 60 cents. That means if I buy 100 shares, I'll spend $60, 60 cents a share, $60. And if JD Vance announces he's going to run for president in 2028, the $60 will turn into $100. I will win the bet, and I made a $40 profit, or about a 66% profit. So I invested $60, and I made a $40 profit. That's a 2 thirds profit, so it's good. So that's roughly how prediction markets work. And I'm going to go through some of the predictions that I have bet on and why I've bet on them. And the key is you always want to get an unfair advantage. You don't want to bet on things that you don't really know, but you have a feeling about, or let's say you're betting on France versus Ecuador in the World Cup and you're from France, so you want to bet on the favorite. That's kind of a silly way to bet. You want to bet on things where you have an unfair advantage. I would say there's two kinds of unfair advantages, and both involve you having very specific knowledge. And I'm going to tell you how you can get that knowledge in certain cases and why I'm making some of the bets that I'm making. So there are two types of unfair advantages you can have. One is you know something about prediction markets in general that most people don't know. And I'll tell you what I mean in a second. The other type of advantage is if you know something very specific about a particular bet that other people don't know. And well, what do you mean? You might say, does that mean you know? Like I'll give you the JD Advanced example again. The JD Advanced tell you he's running for president and then you bet on that.