How likely is a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine?

Ciara Kelly (0:00)

The Hard Shoulder, with Ciara Kelly and Shane Colman. On Newstalk, with Ciara.

Yesterday, Donald Trump predicted a very big deal between Russia and Ukraine, but that might involve all of Europe. Ukrainian officials, of course, met with Melania Trump in the White House this week. And joining me now to discuss how likely this very big deal is and what Europe's broader involvement might be is politics professor at DCU, Donnacha Ó Beacháin. Good evening to you, Donnacha Ó Beacháin. I'm sure you must be relieved to hear that this will all end imminently.

Donnacha Ó Beacháin (0:35)

Good evening, Ciara. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, I have a memory and quite a long one. And you don't have to be on this earth a long time to remember that this end to a war in Ukraine has been called by Donald Trump now many, many, many times since he took office. And indeed, during his presidential campaign, he said on no less than 50 occasions that within 24 hours of taking office, he would bring an end to the war in Ukraine. So this notion of being on the verge of a historic breakthrough, and as he says now, a big, beautiful agreement which everybody will be thrilled with, it's unfortunately familiar territory. Remember even last year, the summer of last year, when he brought Putin to Alaska, it was all again on the cusp of a great breakthrough. So we're at Groundhog's Day. We're back here again. The Ukrainian and the Russians are largely props in a kind of theatrical performance, I think, for Trump. Again, this bid for the Nobel Peace Prize in securing his legacy. Now, of course, he's roped Melania Trump, his wife, into it where she was reading robotically yesterday words which she clearly didn't fully understand and couldn't pronounce. We are led to believe that she brokered a ceasefire in a small part of Ukraine in her son, and the Ukrainians and Russians were brought to the White House to more or less testify to that.

It's deeply depressing that the White House uses Russia's invasion of Ukraine in this way and all actions of the Trump administration, really, since it took office, have been to amplify the Russian narrative. More or less, Ukraine must give territory to Russia before there will be an end to the war. And none of the fundamental issues have been resolved. And there's no detail, of course, in anything that Donald Trump said yesterday.

Ciara Kelly (2:08)

Donnacha, in your view, what is the point of these theatrics, as you probably rightly call them? I can't really see why Donald Trump keeps, sort of, not that anyone is taking it massively seriously, but walking us up the hill and then walking us back down the hill again.

Donnacha Ó Beacháin (2:28)

He works on the, I think, assumption and he has, remember, a long history of entertainment and infotainment, that people have short attention spans. So it's always about dangling a new carriage in front of them. And of course, it's not always Ukraine.

It's of course, reducing the price of energy, reducing the cost of living. You remember how many times he's called an end to the war in Iran as well. And yesterday, actually, during the press conference, it wasn't really widely picked up. He discussed again, kind of wiping Iran off the map. And that echoes a threat that he made in March about bringing an end to their civilization overnight. You remember that? Yeah, I do. So it's all about keeping our attention. I mean, this is what entertainment is all about. We have an entertainer in the White House. Unfortunately, it's the most powerful country in the world. So we have to pay attention. He knows that and he loves being the center of attention.

Ciara Kelly (3:14)

We were discussing earlier on the show, Donnacha, with the background of what happened in Ireland today and elsewhere in Europe over the past week. Bomb threats to media organizations, bomb threats to planes, fridges being hacked, their monitoring systems, schools being threatened, all of those things. This idea that many people would share, that we are actually as a continent, that Europe and the EU are in a hybrid war with Russia.

Would you subscribe to that notion too?

Donnacha Ó Beacháin (3:43)

Oh, yes, of course. I mean, the Russians have set, are on record as saying that any country that supports Ukraine is going to be subjected to this kind of attack. Sergey Lavrov, for example, is on record as saying that. So this is not, these are not just kind of, you know, threats. I mean, these are stress tests of Europe's ability to keep functioning under pressure.