“Heating Prices is Up 31%” - Bills SPIKING Before Winter Arrives

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Patrick Bet-David (0:30)

Heating oil. Let's tell the story because this is truly concerning a lot of different people, especially in the northeast of what could happen. A lot of people talk about diesel, they talk about gas prices.

But heating oil bill is expected to jump. Ready? 31.3% this winter. With northeast households averaging nearly $2,300.

Averaging $2,300. So let's kind of go through this. Heating oil households will pay an average of $2,300 between mid-November and mid-March. A 31.3% increase from last winter. The National Energy Assistant Director Association projected nearly 4.8 million US homes. Ready? 4.8 million US homes. Homes. How many people live per home? Two, four, five. 4.8 million US homes using heating oil, about 82% in the northeast. The US war with Iran that began at the end of February, disrupted shipping through the strait. Brent crude, the source of nearly all US heating oil, sat at 106 a barrel in mid-September, up more than 30% from previous to when the war began. While the war may be thousands of miles away, families will feel it when the heating oil truck pulls into their driveways, said NEADA Executive Director Mark Wolf. President Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen the strait, and senators from both parties have asked them to release emergency heating oil. The American Gas Association projected that gas households will pay about 14% less than last winter, averaging 497 vs. 794, for electric space heating, with record dry gas production expected in 2026

NEADA forecasts overall winter heating costs rise more than 8.7% to a national average of 1030 Tom, thoughts on this?

Tom (2:16)

So let's go take a look at a chart. I just sent the guys a chart right here. Click on one year. Perfect. One year. Take a look at this, Pat. If you go down to February, at the end of last winter, Vinnie, $2.47, $2.38. See that? Multiply that times 2, $4.80. Go look at where we are right now. We're at $4.34, $4.36.

You know what this means? It's going to be 2X. There it is, Pat. It's about to be 2X. At $4.80, it's exactly 2X last winter. So those people are going to have double the price of heating oil one winter to the next. That's not sustainable. And earlier today, right after the jobs report, President Trump called on Europe to release their surplus stocks of diesel because he's trying to bring more diesel into the market to help.

That's what's going on. So we need a reversal, but Pat, I don't think we can get it. It takes about, they said, 75 days to turn the price based on... What do you think?

Patrick Bet-David (3:21)

We won't get it.

Tom (3:22)

I don't think we're going to get a decrease unless it's artificial. It takes 75 days. Seventy-five days today is what? November and October, November is 60 days. And then that's December 10th. Here comes winter.

You're going to see how cold it is and just watching playoff games. Baseball, it's going to be down into the 50s.

Patrick Bet-David (3:43)

You guys got to remind me of the place.

Tom (3:44)

Time for that. So, I saw this coming, and I'm really heavy about it because this is really...

Patrick Bet-David (3:52)

This is real because this is going to really impact the consumer.

Tom (3:55)

2X.

Patrick Bet-David (3:55)

2X, that's real cost that we're talking about. And so, Tom, when this happens, to some, what percentage of these 4.8 million households do you think it will impact directly?

Of course, it's 100% of them, but which one of them are going to be like, turn off the heater, let's do this, wear more clothes? What percentage you think can even financially afford this increase?

Tom (4:21)

Probably only about 60% because a lot of people are on natural gas in newer home communities, and the heating oil is in some of the older communities and older homes. So, I'm going to say, there's probably a full third, that's going to be my guess, a full third of the customers in the Northeast have limited budgets and can't take that hit.

SPEAKER_1 (4:44)

College football is back, so Hilton called on me, the superstition concierge, to make your fan rituals a reality. Need a room to match your lucky number? We got you. Want to make sure our team doesn't wash your lucky jersey? Oh, that smells lucky.