He Called It the Worst Chart Imaginable. Then He Bought It | Rupert Mitchell on Cracks in the Mag 7

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
When you need to build up your team to handle the growing chaos at work, use Indeed Sponsored Jobs. It gives your job post the boost it needs to be seen and helps reach people with the right skills, certifications and more. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit at indeed.com/podcast. That's indeed.com/podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need a hiring hero? This is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:30)
Okay, Mom, for my dorm, I'm thinking Coquette Meets Poet Corps.

**SPEAKER_3** (0:33)
That sounds like a vibe. What do you need and where do we get it?

**SPEAKER_2** (0:37)
Target. I already have everything on my mood board. A comforter, pillows, and a super cute floral lamp. So you probably need a rug to tie it all together.

**Rupert Mitchell** (0:44)
OMG. They have the perfect CMPC rug.

**Matt Zeigler** (0:47)
CMPC?

**Rupert Mitchell** (0:48)
Coquette Meets Poet Corps.

**SPEAKER_2** (0:50)
Oh, okay. In that case, let's RTT.

**Matt Zeigler** (0:53)
Yeah.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:53)
Let's run to Target. You're getting it. Find your dorm inspiration and everything you need at Target.

**Matt Zeigler** (1:02)
You're watching Excess Returns, the channel that makes complex investing ideas simple enough to actually use, or better questions lead to better decisions. My guest today, if Mitch or Magoo was a furry, only look up half of that reference, kids. Trust me. Oh, Mitchell, we've done it again. Blind Squirrel Macro zone, Rupert Mitchell. Welcome back to Ask Excess Returns.

**Rupert Mitchell** (1:22)
Hey, Matt. Matt Zeigler rhymes with diggler. Now I know I'll never make the mistake again.

**Matt Zeigler** (1:29)
I'm taking that, not just because I was taunted in kindergarten, because it rhymes with Jello Jiggler, which I think is part of what you're referencing.

**Rupert Mitchell** (1:35)
Not Dirk. Not Dirk.

**Matt Zeigler** (1:36)
But I'm taking Dirk Diggler on Boogie Nights. If I was born maybe a decade or two later, I might have had that benefit.

**Rupert Mitchell** (1:41)
I don't see any roller skating porn stars behind you, but we're in good shape.

**Matt Zeigler** (1:46)
It's the day is young. It's only four o'clock in my evening so far, so never say never.
We're going straight into this. I want to talk about the Charter of Truth. You bring it on every single time. It's the SMP versus the rest of the world. Only one can rule them all. It's better than a World Cup final, at least I hope. Tell me, give me the update. What's the deal with our Charter of Truth?

**Rupert Mitchell** (2:10)
So, you know, when were we last on? I think it was November, and it's done almost nothing since November. I think that...

**Matt Zeigler** (2:17)
What's crazy is I feel like, yeah, we were close to the 200 week moving average. It was just, yeah, and now we're dead. We're just dead.

**Rupert Mitchell** (2:25)
We had a big trip below at the beginning of the year, and then we're back to flat, we're back to flat. And, you know, interestingly, I mean, we're there, notwithstanding the fact that, you know, the dollar has actually felt a little bit punchy so far a year today, you know, and...

**Matt Zeigler** (2:46)
Define punchy. Well, give me the Rupert Mitchell definition of a punchy dollar.

**Rupert Mitchell** (2:51)
You know, any time the DXY is sort of above 100 and trending stronger, typically that would be problematic for, you know, rest of world equities generally. And they've been, you know, less perturbed by them. Yeah, we've had a really... I mean, there's been a momentum in trade that until recently has been sucking all of the oxygen out of the tent and looks to be rolling over right now quite painfully. But, you know, actually, you know, rest of world equities have just been chugging away.
And, you know, it's been a difficult, it's been a difficult year. I mean, I started the start of the year well and, you know, felt that, felt that actually was too much too soon. And started de-risking well ahead of the war becoming an issue. And then really sat on my hands for two months. I sort of had, I'm not adding risk until the, the straits is reopened. And, you know, that was beginning to feel a bit like waiting for Godot.
And then, you know, started, started an adding energy equities, which we can talk about in a second. And then, you know, got into the, got into the true, true, the crude trade quite aggressively too early.
Roundtrip that. And now here we are. We're on the 28th of July right now. A very punishing week again for the fronts of the crude trade. For me, the numbers don't add up. You know, I struggle to not see an oil price higher by year end. You know, I've got a big position, but not one that's scaring the bejesus out of me yet.