Google’s James Manyika: Who Actually Gets Paid in the AI Economy

SPEAKER_1 (0:01)

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James Manyika (0:30)

It's such an exciting time. The possibilities are extraordinary, but the challenges and the risks of complexities are also as important to make sure we're working on both things.

Marina Mogilko (0:38)

This is James Manyika, Google's Senior Vice President of Research, Labs, Technology, and Society. He spent years studying how technology changes work and how workers can benefit from those changes. What do you think will happen in the next five years?

James Manyika (0:52)

The one thing that will happen is that there will be some jobs that will decline.

Marina Mogilko (0:56)

What are the biggest jobs at risk?

James Manyika (0:58)

People are doing a lot of kind of routine tasks, testing code, for example. But I think it's important to complete the picture. The other parts you'll see are jobs gained, new occupations that didn't exist before.

Marina Mogilko (1:09)

Is there a warning sign you would be looking for that could accelerate the job loss?

James Manyika (1:15)

There's several things I've been looking at that could...

Marina Mogilko (1:19)

James, thank you so much for doing this.

James Manyika (1:21)

Thank you so much for having me.

Marina Mogilko (1:22)

I like how you're plugged into everything that Google does when it comes to technology and AI. So you're the best person to discuss so many topics. But I wanted to start with something that my audience is particularly worried and interested in is what's happening to our jobs.

And you were willing to take a bet. I watched on your podcast that we won't see 10% of jobs automated away within a year. That was your bet.

James Manyika (1:45)

This is a topic I've been spending quite some time over many years. The question of what happens when AI intersects and impacts jobs.

And I've always had the view and a lot of the research that I've done, and actually many economists have done, has basically described that three things will happen, and all of them will happen. We can debate the proportions of them. The one thing that will happen is that there will be some jobs that will decline. And that's because some of the constituent tasks involved become easy to automate. So we'll see some jobs lost over time.

Marina Mogilko (2:18)

What are the biggest jobs at risk?

James Manyika (2:20)

Well, I think you'll see that. So for example, anytime people are doing a lot of kind of routine tasks, whether it's testing code, for example, or looking for bugs or those kinds of things. So there's a whole range of tasks. In fact, by the original estimates that I did and many others did back maybe several years ago, we keep updating these, the proportion of jobs that could be lost that way added up to single digits number as a percentage of jobs, say, in the US economy. So you will see some jobs lost in that sense. But I think it's important to complete the picture. The other parts you'll see are jobs gained. And the jobs gained will be of two kinds. On the one hand, there will be some jobs whose demand will just go up, existing jobs, and we're seeing some of that today with electricians and a whole range of jobs where the demand will actually go up for those jobs even though they exist. And this is the story of what happened with radiologists, what happened with even bank tellers, the advent of cash machines. So there'll be some jobs gained of that kind. The other jobs that will be gained will be new occupations that didn't exist before.

There's a long history of this.

David Alter at MIT and others have done some research that basically shows if you looked at the US economy back in the 50s compared to now, something like 68% of the jobs we have today, occupations just didn't exist before. It's kind of like if you had looked in 1995 and said, is there a job called web designer?

Conscious Creator. Conscious Creator podcast. You'd say no, but now in hindsight, you'd say, oh yeah, those are real jobs. So jobs gained will be of two kinds. But the biggest effect that almost most economists have looked at this will point to is the jobs changed, which is the third effect where many jobs, the content of them will change, even though we may still keep the same name for them. So the reason I was taking the bet was because, starting maybe about four years ago, there were some AI folks who were arguing that in two years time, we're going to wipe out 50% of white collar jobs. And that's the bet I was willing to take. In fact, I took a bet with a couple of the people who were making those pronouncements.