Google X's Astro Teller: The $1B Bet No CEO Will Back, Moonshots 3x Cheaper in 16 Yrs, and Clean Water at 1¢/L| EP #300

Salim Ismail (0:05)

Good to see you again, Ash.

Astro Teller (0:05)

Thanks for having me.

Peter Diamandis (0:06)

It's a pleasure, pal. And we've known each other for, God knows, a couple of decades now.

You know, I think most people don't know something about you. It's worth mentioning. Just for fun, since we're talking about genetics, his maternal grandfather was a Nobel laureate in economics, and his paternal grandfather was Edward Teller, the creator of the hydrogen bomb. It's a pretty interesting fact.

Salim Ismail (0:31)

No pressure.

Peter Diamandis (0:32)

No pressure.

Astro Teller (0:34)

It was a high pressure childhood, yes.

Peter Diamandis (0:35)

Yeah, I guess so. So, let me kick off the first question. So you've been in the Moonshot business for over 20 years.

Walk us through your advice of what it actually takes to come up with a Moonshot and launch a Moonshot. You know, how do you make this real? We've got a lot of individuals here who are here because they believe in optimism, they believe in Moonshots. You know, in 10 seconds. No, just kidding. What's your advice? I mean, you've learned so much.

Astro Teller (1:10)

Let me give you two quick things. The first one is, let's just define Moonshot, at least how we think of a Moonshot.

Peter Diamandis (1:16)

Which is how I think of it as well.

Astro Teller (1:18)

Excellent. I learned from you. So, three basic components. First, there has to be a huge problem with the world that you can name and you want to solve. If you can't name the huge problem, then it's arguably an academic exercise.

Second, there has to be some kind of science fiction sounding product or service that no matter how unlikely it is you could make it, we could pre-agree that if you made that science fiction sounding product or service, it would resolve that huge problem with the world. And then three, there has to be some kind of breakthrough technology that gives us a prayer, or at least a tiny chance at minimum of being able to make that science fiction sounding product or service and resolving that huge problem with the world. When you have that, we would call that a Moonshot story hypothesis. That does not mean you're going to win, but it at least means it's testable.

The second thing I would say is one of the fundamental issues that we found at X is that you have to have two things in equal amounts in order to be a Moonshot explorer, to be a Moonshot team. The first one is you have to have very high audacity. You have to be willing to suspend your disbelief for non-stupid reasons and go on unlikely journeys that might actually profoundly help the world. But the second thing you have to have in equal measure is humility. You have to know from the first moment you set out on that unlikely journey that it's unlikely.

Because if you don't, you will go ruinously far down that path before you find out that that is one of the 99% that just isn't going to work out. So being able to say right at the beginning, I'm proud that I'm trying this, but it probably won't work. Let me learn as fast and as cheaply as I can, whether this is even possible, allows you to get onto the next Moonshot when that Moonshot's not the right one to do.

Peter Diamandis (3:15)

So your advice for folks, I mean, the challenge of picking a Moonshot, I mean, right now, the speed at which you can test things, create things, right? But what about the beginning, choosing the idea? Any advice there?

Well, put it this way. What do you do to shut down an idea quickly?

Astro Teller (3:36)

So sometimes the idea's just not big enough. Sometimes the idea is too reasonable or likely to succeed.

Sometimes it's just not good for the world or the potential for too many sort of secondary problems associated with it. It's just too high.

Often it's techno-economics. I cannot tell you the number of MOONSHOTS that feel so good to people in the early days. Often these are very technical people. And it's not until you say, really? Like, let's go step by step. What is the best case scenario for the build of materials that you would make this from? What is, like, just the raw cost and weight of the stuff that would go into that? What are people really going to pay? Could this even plausibly...

Peter Diamandis (4:25)

Zero, zero, you know, what does Elon call it? First principle thinking in that regard.

Astro Teller (4:31)

Right, first principles thinking about the techno-economics. You can often kill MOONSHOTS in the very early days because it's just not going to turn into an enduring business. And at least what I believe is that purpose and profit can support each other and then if you're doing something that's going to lose money, it's probably not going to change the world.