Gold & Silver Are Entering a New Phase, But Nobody Sees It Coming | Jason Saphiro Interview

Mark (0:00)

Brought to you by the Ore Group, connecting people, objects and capital to fund the next generation of mines. My name is Mark and you're watching Resource Talks Weekly News Roundup for the week ending September the 20th, 2026

This week, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023, taking its target range to 3.75 to 4 percent. Gold rallied more than 2 percent after the Fed's decision, despite the prospect of further rate rises. Copper bounced about 2 percent, but remains below last week's record after tariff doubts triggered a sharp sell-off.

Joining us to make sense for it all is Jason Shapiro, founder of Crowded Market Report. Jason has more than 30 years of experience trading futures, and specializes in identifying crowded trades and potential market reversals. At the end of the show, I'll ask Jason what change he'd make to our $1 million model portfolio. So Jason, thanks for joining us. All right.

Jason Shapiro (1:05)

Good to be here. So I hope I can help you make sense of it, but I could certainly maybe help you figure out some questions.

Mark (1:13)

Yeah. So the big news story, obviously, as we said there in the intro that the Fed has raised rates by a quarter point, and at the same time, 16 out of 18 policy makers, said that they expect another rise this year. So Jason, you've argued that raising rates could support stocks and long-term bonds by restoring confidence in the Fed. And the 10-year yield has since fallen, so that supports your view.

What would confirm though going forward that this is more than just a one-day move?

Jason Shapiro (1:51)

I mean, I guess the market itself is what confirms it going forward, right? If it can hold, if it can keep these things, what they're doing today, then that would, I guess, be the answer. That's the only answer at the end of the day to that question is, the market is the answer, right? So I think that's the only thing that would really confirm that.

Mark (2:13)

I suppose, though, what I'm asking is, if the Fed raises rates again, though, could that still be bullish again for bonds and stocks? Or there's obviously a point where higher rates starts hurting both of them?

Jason Shapiro (2:28)

Is there? Do we know that?

Mark (2:33)

Well, yeah, because rates, you know, higher rates are negatively correlated with investment and with debt funded consumer spending, right? So that should push down aggregate demand in a simple model.

Jason Shapiro (2:52)

In a simple model. If only the markets, I mean, are you asking me about the economy? Or you're asking me about the markets? You know, the markets are clearly not a simple model.

It's all a function of what is being discounted in first, I think. And then what new happens that is not being discounted in, that's where you get move in the market, right? At least that's how I see it. So, and, you know, you say, oh, well, I've been of the idea that raising rates would be good, net-net, in particular for long-term bonds and stocks for that matter.

And it wasn't that I'm using my macroeconomics, you know, PhD to come up with that idea. I've been watching the markets, and that's what they have been saying for months now, right? Every time we have had a piece of data or some news or whatever that indicated rates were going to go higher, it was good relatively for the long end of the yield curve. Whereas when we had news the other way, that maybe lowered the expectations of an interest rate rise, that's when the long end of the yield curve did poorly. So, it's not just a question of me thinking this, it's a question of the market telling me that that's what it was. So, what would change is if the market starts to react in a different way, I think, and gave a different message. I get the vast majority of my readings and my message from the market itself. I'm not a predictor of the future. I'm an observer of the tape. So, if that message from the market start to change, then I would start to possibly change my view on that. But for now, I mean, yesterday's rate rise was clearly expected by pretty much everybody.

And now, we probably have at least one, if not two more expected by the majority of people. So, I don't really think that that hurts.

No one's going to come in here and say, oh my God, they're raising rates. Sell, sell, sell, because you might as well just sell now, if that were the situation, because everybody already thinks that that's coming. You're not going to wait till it actually comes. You do it in anticipation. And despite the fact, look, there's a lot of despite the facts in this market, but let's just stick with the interest rate thing, since that's what we're talking about. Despite the fact that we've gone from at the beginning of the year, let's not forget, the consensus that they were going to be cutting rates, because President Trump, that's what he wanted, and he was going to appoint a Fed chair that was going to obey what he wanted and all that. So we came in expecting rate cuts. We're now at two, if not, well, we're at one that definitely already happened, and two, possibly three more expected. So that was a big change from the expecting in the beginning of the year to where we are now in September. And meanwhile, the S&Ps, of course, much higher than it was in the beginning of the year. And maybe a percent and a half, two, no, maybe two, two and a half percent off of all time highs. So like, where's all the selling? You know, where? It doesn't exist from what I can say, at least to this point. The tape has been very, very good in stocks, and it's not just, obviously, the interest rate thing. We've had a ton of other things that if you were embarrassed, you could point to, including even just this last week. All of a sudden, you know, obviously, AI went from being the thing that's going to save the world to the thing that's going to end the world, right? And meanwhile, ever since then, those stocks have outperformed, right? So again, the tape is speaking, and that to me is the loudest. Can I sit here and make up a whole bunch of crap about macroeconomics that I have a degree? You know, I can sit there and talk macroeconomics and economic history and let's go, and here's what's going to happen. But what I have found is that doesn't help, you know? So everybody has a theory, you know? Doesn't mean it's going to be right. Ultimately, what's going to be right is what the market is telling you. And to this point, that's what the market is saying. And if you really want to get into the fundamentals of, you know, oh, well, if they raise rates, what does that mean? They're not raising 10-year rates. They're raising Fed funds, you know? And what frustrates me a lot, personally, is when I hear people talking about, I heard it this weekend, there's no way that they are going to raise rates because the housing, no one can afford housing. And at the higher rates, housing developers can't afford to develop new housing, and that just keeps the shortage, and therefore, housing is never affordable.