Gold Holds Above $4,100 Despite Yield Surge

Tim Elliott (0:00)

It's the Morning Drive, it is Friday morning, or where are we, October the 9th, 2026 And it's time to talk gold and precious metals, analyzing the recent, I suppose the recent pullback in gold.

Jeff Rhodes is here, he's the managing director for business development for the Middle Eastern Asia at Monetary Metals. Jeff, it's nice to see you.

Jeff Rhodes (0:20)

Yeah, good morning.

Tim Elliott (0:21)

Good to have you here. I watched you scrolling away out there on your report outside the office this morning. You never stop working.

That would be my first observation with you. You are, this is, gold is your, I don't know, gold is at the core of your existence.

Jeff Rhodes (0:38)

Yeah, well, it's part of it. Yeah, that's for sure. But now I have to be prepared when I'm coming to face you, Tim, because you can be a very, very good incisive interviewer.

Tim Elliott (0:52)

Incisive, yeah.

Jeff Rhodes (0:54)

You are very incisive. Very, I like working with you, because you're always asking me difficult questions.

Tim Elliott (1:02)

I find it really interesting, because until, what, a year ago, you've been coming in here for a year now. You realize that.

Jeff Rhodes (1:09)

It's amazing.

Tim Elliott (1:10)

I know. Not long after we started, I'm aware of gold. I understand that it has importance. It's traded. I get that. But I didn't know very much about it. I feel like I've learned a lot.

Jeff Rhodes (1:23)

Yeah. Well, we, as I say, we've been talking every week, more or less, for a year. It does rub off. And you are, for me, I remember in the old days, in the previous life.

Tim Elliott (1:40)

That previous incarnation.

Jeff Rhodes (1:44)

I listened to you so much on driving home back to Ras Al Khaimah.

Oh, that's many years ago. I think you were on the Morning Show for a bit, but mainly in the evening, on the drive.

Tim Elliott (1:59)

Pretty much always the drive home. Yeah, yeah. I think the Morning Show is only about the drive. I know. Yeah, yeah. So it's all about driving for me. My wife would say driving people mad, probably. But there you are.

I want to get your thoughts on the Intercontinental Exchange launching gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts in London. But I want to get to that because two-month low for gold touching, what, $4,067, was it? I think it got to stabilize just over $4,100.

Silver, platinum, palladium, all seeing some reasonably sharp pullbacks, I think it would be fair to say. What's driving the downward pressure?

Jeff Rhodes (2:45)

The, well, US dollar.

Tim Elliott (2:48)

It's the precious metals complex here, isn't it?

Jeff Rhodes (2:50)

Yeah, but it all comes from gold. But, yeah, the foreign exchange, US dollar, strong. Not good for gold. Treasury yield, 10-year Treasury yields, 5.34% in the last week. The highest level of yield since 2002

2002, Tim. And you, did we talk about this before? But, but do you know what the gold price was then?

Tim Elliott (3:25)

You have said it and I have promptly forgotten it.

Jeff Rhodes (3:28)

$650. So, last time, last time US Treasury yields for 10 years were 5.34. Gold was $650.

Tim Elliott (3:39)

Yeah.

Jeff Rhodes (3:40)

Okay. Now, gold is $4100, and we're at that same yield level. The gold really has done amazingly well to hold above $4000. It seems like over the last three months, we've really been in that $4000 to $4800.

But a lot of the time, certainly recently, $4100 to $4400, but it did look deeply dippy.

Tim Elliott (4:14)

I was going to say, $4,067 is $3,800 territory.

Jeff Rhodes (4:19)

It was two months low, but it's held very well. And we can talk about the LBMA Gold Conference in Sorrento a bit later.

But the message from that conference is that gold is really going back up. It still looks very good.

In Q3, ETF inflows in the UK were massive. About 65 tons of gold ETF buying. And typically, they would have expected around about 15 to 20 So very strong institutional ETF buying. We've got central banks who continue to be on the buy side, and we could talk about the Bundesbank a little bit later, or what Joachim Nagel from the Bundesbank, president of the Bundesbank, was saying about gold, which is really very interesting, and it just underlines the way gold has become front and center, even at central bank level.

Tim Elliott (5:33)

So the dollar, strong, Treasury yields up. I'm old enough to remember 2002 and think it was yesterday, because it's the year before my son was born, but it's 24 years ago, it's a quarter of a century or thereabouts. So that's dragging gold down.