Geopolitical prognosis for 2016, Part 2 of 2 – Americas, Africa and East Asia

Shirvan (0:00)

In 2016, the territorial disputes in the South China Sea will continue to remain the focus of attention. An important decision by the International Tribunal is expected, one that will greatly influence the dispute. China's economic slowdown will lead to lower metal prices, which will have enormous consequences for commodity producing countries. Furthermore, in India, the country will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the world, but the security issues with neighboring Pakistan will continue. Security will also play a big role in Libya, where the lack of a government will turn the country into a gateway for foreign fighters and arms headed for Central Africa. Aside this, a number of African nations will stand on the brink of civil war. But not everything is bad. In South America, Colombia is well on its way to peacefully settle a 50-year insurgency, and the new government of Argentina will begin addressing its financial problems through negotiations. Further north, the American public will continue the debate on racial violence, but the biggest issue for the United States will be the growing challenges to its status as the world's sole superpower. In this prognosis, we will go over the most likely diplomatic, economic and military outcomes for East and Southeast Asia, Africa and South and North America in 2016

Welcome to a Caspian Report by me, Shirvan. We start the prognosis right where we left off, in North Africa. Following the collapse of the Al-Khadafi government in 2011, Libya has been in a state of anarchy.

2016 promises nothing good for the country. At the moment, Libya is governed by two rival factions, Tripoli and Tobruk, who are in UN-led peace talks. Since most international oil companies prefer to cooperate with Tripoli, the Tobruk faction will gradually have to make concessions with its Tripoli rivals. Yet, the negotiations will yield no results this year. At the backdrop of the peace talks, the country is being ravaged by militias and tribes who are fighting for power and control. The rule of law has ceased to exist. Crime and violence are at an all-time high and the judicial system has collapsed. In 2014 and 2015, the lack of a government turned Libya into a transit hub for refugees and migrants trying to reach Europe. In 2016, Libya will become a transit hub for arms trade and ISIS militants headed for Lake Chad region and beyond. This new supply route of fighters and arms will strengthen the position of Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab. So in 2016, we will see even more activity from these two militant organizations. What's more is that the epicenter of their activities will remain Nigeria and Somalia respectively, but the area of operations for Boko Haram will expand into neighboring countries such as Niger, Chad and Cameroon. For Al-Shabaab, the operations will further expand into neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia. Equally important is that the local leaders will fail to stop the organizations or even address the factors behind the radicalization, such as corruption, political alienation, rapid population growth, environmental degradation, etc.

South Sudan will be one of the few countries unaffected by these radical groups. However, the country will face its own very unique problem in 2016

The peace agreement between the government and the largest armed opposition group is on the brink of collapse. Decades-long independence struggle has left South Sudan with dozens of rival armed groups. Since 2013, more than 2.4 million people have been displaced, and tens of thousands have been killed. And with more than 24 armed groups, the prospects of a full-fledged civil war in 2016 is becoming a reality. In the 1960s and 80s, the dictators in Africa used direct force to rule. In 2016, the game will change. Rather than force, the local rulers will prefer to legalize their indefinite rule by adjusting the constitution. An example of this is President Nassou Nugusu of the Republic of Congo. In 2015, he adjusted the term limit in the constitution, which will allow for his re-election in 2016

This tactic is and will be used by many Central African nations, such as Uganda, Rwanda and Angola. Most rulers will get away with this due to the weak opposition forces, but not everyone. Two countries in particular will face an armed rebellion. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, President Kabila's attempt to re-write the constitution has created a lot of opposition. In 2016, sporadic violence throughout the country is expected. The same story goes for Burundi, only worse. Ever since the third re-election of President Nukorunziza, the situation has escalated. Hundreds of civilians have been killed and more than 200,000 people have fled the country. The UN is expecting a dramatic escalation with catastrophic violence. The thing is, even though the crisis is more political than ethnic, some politicians are exploiting the ethnic divisions. If these exploitations and the violence continue, we will see a civil war in Burundi.