Geopolitical analysis 2017: North America, Part 2 of 2

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

Carhartt's holiday gift guides were built in collaboration with the greatest gift giver of all time, Santa Claus himself. Old St. Nick counts on Carhartt's durable gear to have his back through rain, sleep, and snow on the biggest night of the year. Because when everyone's counting on you to do your job, what else would you wear to work? Tap the banner to grab a gift for every hardworking person on your holiday shopping list, or head to carhartt.com.

SPEAKER_2 (0:28)

Shipping, billing, admin, payroll, marketing, you're managing all the things. So why waste time sending important documents the old-fashioned way? Mail and ship when you want, how you want, with stamps.com. Print postage on demand 24-7 and schedule pickups from your office or home. Save up to 90% with automated rate shopping. That's why over 1 million small businesses trust stamps.com.

Go to stamps.com and use code PODCAST to try stamps.com risk-free for 60 days.

SPEAKER_3 (0:58)

Starting a business can seem like a daunting task, unless you have a partner like Shopify.

They have the tools you need to start and grow your business. From designing a website to marketing to selling and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need. There's a reason millions of companies like Mattel, Heinz, and Allbirds continue to trust and use them. With Shopify on your side, turn your big business idea into a reality-free world. Sign up for your $1-per-month trial at shopify.com/specialoffer.

SPEAKER_4 (1:26)

I'm Hannah. I've lost 75 pounds in 20 months with GLP-1s, plus diet and exercise. On Ro, I've gone from struggling to run a mile to running farther every day. You can access FDA-approved GLP-1s online. Get the support you need to reach your weight loss goals. Go to ro.co/weight to see if you qualify. I'm a paid Ro partner. 20% average weight loss in one year in non-diabetics with obesity or overweight for the weight-related medical condition versus 3.1% in placebo arm. Rx only. To stay informed about serious side effects, go to ro.co/safety.

Shirvan (1:57)

Trump's presidency will have profound economic and political consequences for North America. In the previous episode, we talked about the president's bipartisan approval, the legal system, healthcare, climate change, and more. In part two of the North American analysis for 2017, we will go over the remaining topics such as trade, immigration, as well as Washington's relationship with neighboring Canada and Mexico.

My name is Shirvan and welcome to CaspianReport. If you want to support our channel to produce more original content like this, please visit patreon.com/caspianreport.

One of Trump's most questionable position concerns the recent trade treaties. Trump has a protectionist stance on trade. He believes the current deals are hurting American workers and companies. More specifically, he doesn't approve of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and the North American Free Trade Agreement. Or, better known by their abbreviations, the TTP, the TTIP, and NAFTA respectively. The TTP seeks to tightly link the American economy with 11 others around the Pacific. It's an ambitious idea, but ultimately it's far too complicated to work. The TTP is only in its infancy and has not been ratified, meaning in 2017, Trump will have no trouble overturning the concept.

And without American participation, the concept will be rendered meaningless. In the long term, the failure to implement the TTP will diminish American influence in the Pacific. Another proposal that is as good as that is the TTIP, which seeks to bring about lower trade tariffs, reduce regulatory barriers, and spur forth cheaper goods and services between the United States and the European Union. The TTIP is one of the biggest agreements of its kind. However, the deal is still years away from a real structure.

Just like the TTP, Trump could abandon the TTIP, however, it will change little for the current state of affairs. In fact, the European Union may prefer to ditch the draft either way since the TTIP seeks to get rid of non-tariff barriers.

These are restrictive regional rules on quality, size, and the standards of goods. Meaning, without the TTIP, Europe would not have to lower the quality of its goods. The final trade agreement concerns NAFTA, which is a trilateral trade bloc in North America. Some Canadian officials are worried that Trump may seek to dismantle the agreement. However, Trump will be powerless to change NAFTA. The trade bloc is an existing treaty, in other words, it's American law. A president cannot change laws, only Congress can.

And regarding NAFTA, Congress isn't expected to adjust its position. In fact, Trump would be isolated in his attempt to undermine NAFTA since it would disturb trade. For instance, in 2015, the goods and services trade between the United States and Canada amounted to an estimated $662 billion.