Geopolitical analysis 2017: North America, Part 1 of 2

Shirvan (0:00)

Almost a month has passed since American voters chose their next president. Trump's victory in the presidential elections represents a shift in American politics. However, to assume that Trump's campaign promises will dictate his actions would be a grave misconception. By filtering out the emotions as well as the political restrictions, we can calculate what the president can and cannot do.

This methodology brings forth a certain degree of predictability for 2017

Now Trump's presidency will have global implications, and we will go over these changes. However, in this episode, we will focus on Trump's legitimacy, the legal system, Obamacare, climate change and more. In the second episode, we'll talk about immigration, trade and the relations between the United States, Mexico and Canada. My name is Shirvan and welcome to CaspianReport. If you want to help our channel grow and produce more original content like this, please visit our fundraising page at patreon.com/caspianreport.

In 2017, President Trump can expect support from at least 31 Republican governors and a steadily weakening Democratic Party. Trump will be able to change every field of domestic policy, but it's not going to be that easy. Obama plans to protect his legacy by submitting an additional 98 regulations in his last two months in office. Most of these last-minute regulations will focus on education, energy, workplace safety, transportation, trade, pollution, financial regulations, immigration, health care, and more. Nearly all the final regulations are in direct opposition to the next president's plans. Thus, for Trump to shift American domestic policy, he must first repeal Obama's federal regulations by writing new legislations. The overall process will be tedious and legally complicated. It could take Trump up to two years to fully repeal Obama's legacy. As a result, Trump's administration will spend most of 2017 engulfed in paperwork to undo Obama's work. At best, somewhere by 2018, the president will have untied his hands and will be able to make new domestic policy decisions. Until then, Trump will need to convince the public of his credibility. Therefore, securing legitimacy will form his primary domestic objective in 2017

A few early reforms will provide the president with the necessary bipartisan support, which he needs to consolidate his power. In 2017, Trump will introduce a new infrastructure bill, which will exceed last year's five-year plan legislation set at a staggering $305 billion.

Trump's legislation will improve American roads, bridges, water systems, railways, airports, dams, and more. Following this, the president will seek to implement a dramatic tax reform. More specifically, the Congress will lower the corporate tax code by nearly 15% and offer multinational companies an amnesty if they return billions of dollars in overseas wealth to American soil.

Following these changes, Trump will also seek to boost the domestic production of hydrocarbon energy. This will include the construction of new pipelines, including the long-delayed Keystone pipeline from Canada. Overall, the energy revenues could increase by 150 billion dollars in 2017

The additional funds from energy and corporate taxes would enable the Congress to compensate for the income tax cuts and the infrastructure bill.

These early reforms would significantly boost Trump's bipartisan approval ratings. After all, it's hard to discredit someone who modernizes the infrastructure, returns overseas revenues, and lowers the income taxes. Basically, in 2017, due to these reforms, Trump will slowly pacify the nationwide anger towards him and gain genuine legitimacy. Another revision Trump will seek to enact concerns the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare. The health care legislation was enacted by Obama in 2010, and it's the most dramatic overhaul of the American health care system in decades. Yet, Obamacare has many flaws. It has driven up premiums for some patients, and there are still millions of people with no cover at all. Republicans will pressure Trump to dismantle the whole act, while Democrats will demand that Trump fixes it. In theory, to undo Obamacare, the Republicans need to present a replacement bill on the Senate floor. An early alternative will involve using tax credits, saving accounts, and greater competition to provide cheaper but less comprehensive health cover. Overall, any changes to Obamacare will affect over 20 million Americans, but replacing it will require tedious paperwork and tremendous long legal battles. The whole process could take up to a year. In the meantime, by appointing Tom Price as Secretary of Health and Human Services, Trump will seek to indirectly relax or even suspend many of Obamacare's mandates. Price, who is known to be a fierce critic of Obamacare, will eventually attempt to dismantle the Affordable Care Act altogether, but in 2017, he will first render it ineffective.

In fact, appointing close associates and pro-business executives to key governmental positions is a trend Trump will likely continue in 2017

Essentially, he will reward those who came out early to support him during the presidential elections. For instance, the Finance Director of the Trump campaign and former Goldman Sachs banker Stephen Mnuchin has already been appointed as the Secretary of the Treasury. Another big position is set for billionaire Wilbur Ross as the Secretary of Commerce. A few other names with upcoming key positions include Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama, Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, former Mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, and more. Yet, perhaps the most crucial nomination concerns the Supreme Court. Since the death of Justice Antonin Scalia in 2016, the Supreme Court has had eight justices and one vacancy. The eight justices have been split between four pro-Republicans and four pro-Democrats. Obama has tried to appoint Gary Garland to the Supreme Court. However, Garland's nomination has been stonewalled by the Republicans. In 2017, Trump will nominate a justice. The Senate will then vote to approve or dismiss the nomination. The Supreme Court has jurisdiction over all federal and state courts. The appointment of a new pro-Republican candidate to the Supreme Court would greatly enhance Trump's influence. For starters, it would allow Trump to change federal laws, including the Clean Power Plan. Currently, the Clean Power Plan, approved by the Supreme Court but legally challenged by 27 states and multinational companies, is under question in the federal appeals court. If the court upholds the plan, Trump will have the option to appeal to the Supreme Court. However, if the court rules against it, the president could rescind and replace it after he wins the counter lawsuits by the Democrats. Again, this process could take years. Now, Trump has taken just about every position on climate change imaginable. Like most politicians, it's safe to say that his views are mostly governed by what each audience wants to hear. However, if Trump is truly intent on reversing Obama's environmental regulations, he could dismantle the Clean Power Plan, which seeks to limit carbon emissions from coal and gas-fired power stations. The Clean Power Plan also forms an essential part of Washington's commitments on the Paris Agreement of 2015